Recent data by analysts OAG indicates a staggering drop in travel demand between Canada and the United States, with transborder flight bookings plummeting by over 70%.
Key Insights
- Booking Statistics:
- In March 2024, there were 1,218,570 tickets booked for April 2024. In contrast, March 2025 saw only 295,982 tickets booked, representing a 75.7% reduction.
- Airline Capacity Adjustments:
- Airlines have reduced transborder capacity by only 1.6% to 3.5% despite the significant decline in bookings. This discrepancy suggests that further capacity cuts are inevitable if demand does not recover.
- Market Reactions:
- WestJet has shifted focus to European destinations, adding flights to Dublin and Edinburgh, while Air Canada faces challenges in adjusting its network due to its larger proportion of connecting traffic through U.S. hubs.
Bottom line
The current landscape of transborder travel between Canada and the U.S. is, frankly, astonishing. With a 70%+ drop in future bookings, airlines will need to adapt quickly to changing market conditions – but that really isn’t a simple task, particularly given the wider context. The hostile and dismissive attitude that the Trump administration has shown towards Canada, extends to many of America’s traditional allies. It’s hard to imagine many Europeans (especially, for example, Danes) rushing to spend their time and money in the USA right now…
It isn’t a surprise at all to see a decline here, but the scale of it is remarkable. The comparable figures for other nations will be fascinating as time goes on.
Feature image: Air Canada
