will United keep the IAH to EZE route....?

Discussion in 'United Airlines | MileagePlus' started by Gaucho, Sep 17, 2011.  |  Print Topic

  1. Gaucho
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    Gaucho Gold Member

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    Its no secret that UA basically gave up the EZE market to American when it killed its ORD and MIA flights.... so now with the Continental merger, they again have another flight down here out of Houston.

    So my question would be.... will the new merged UA / CO give this market another shot and again offer AA and LAN a fight for the MIA market or will they instead go back to the original UA plan and eventually drop this route....???
     
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  2. Flyer1976
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    Flyer1976 Gold Member

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    I'm flying to/from EZE twice in September/October and I checked the Load Factors, UA is able to fill their IAD-EZE flights pretty consistently and CO is filling their IAH-EZE flights pretty well for using the 767s so I won't armchair quarterback but both routes are doing good load factor wise and there's plenty of cargo demand as well.

    It's a shame we'll miss each other by the way Gaucho.
    Disfrute de su visita a los Estados Unidos mientras estoy en su país.
     
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  3. mowogo
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    mowogo Gold Member

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    I would see them keeping it, as IAH is a logical feed point for the UA network compared to ORD and MIA.
     
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  4. 2wheels

    2wheels Silver Member

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    I see a few things that could happen:
    1) Keeping this route, and possible open up LAX/SFO or something else. There is demand. The IAD-EZE route is easy to roll IDBs on for days and days.
    2) Leave this route to Copa. With Copa joining the *A and CO's history, I could see this and other South American cities being given to Copa, and multiple flights per day from CO/UA hubs to PTY.
     
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  5. Wandering Aramean
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    Wandering Aramean Gold Member

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    The PTY option is not viable as the only feed. It is out of the way and inefficient as a routing.

    I expect that IAH and IAD will remain.
     
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  6. Hartmann
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    Hartmann Gold Member

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    Not only do I see them keeping IAH/IAD-EZE, I could see them upgauging IAH-EZE to 777.
     
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  7. Wandering Aramean
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    Wandering Aramean Gold Member

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    With F? It would be interesting to see if they think that market has the F yields to support it once they start pulling F seats off lesser European markets. Wouldn't surprise me much at all to see that happen.
     
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  8. Golfingboy
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    Golfingboy Gold Member

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    IAH-EZE and IAD-EZE definitely will remain and yields are pretty strong across all carriers... Not to mention the lucrative cargo market. I think IAD will continue to have the 763 and like Hartmann said the 777 is a strong possibility for IAH.

    AA flies 4x daily flights to EZE [2x 777 from MIA, 1x 777 from JFK, and 1x 763 from DFW] and DL flies the 764 from ATL and this is the only South American route that DL flies with the 764.

    The only deep South American route I would be worried about is GRU-ORD/EWR. I don't think GRU can sustain IAH/ORD/IAD/EWR. However, I can see the new UA starting 1x daily IAH-SCL with a 762 or 763 without the F cabin.
     
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  9. Flyer1976
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    Flyer1976 Gold Member

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    SCL would be a welcome addition to the Route Network!
     
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  10. jbcarioca
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    jbcarioca Gold Member

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    The GRU-ORD loads and yields are very good. The connections to Japan are very good, and the F and C loads GRU-TYO are very high. Remember that Sampa has the third largest population of Japanese in the world, after only Tokyo and Osaka. The old RG GRU-TYO and GIG-TYO flights went full in all classes with a stop in LAX. Now the only direct option is KE with also a stop in LAX then a change in ICN that 777 is consistently full. There is lots of premium passenger and freight traffic GRU and GIG for Tokyo and Nagoya in particular. Thus I would be surprised were they to halt that flight. if they had the equipment they'd be more likely to upguage it.

    EZE has traffic increases, especially for freight, for a number of US locations. I expect to see more, not less, flights between EZE-USA as potential long-haul equipment is released from the slipping US domestic market. The next months certainly will see service cuts in domestic US and some Europe, so they'll have some 767's available to use where business remains strong, and that speaks to the Southern Cone. Remember also that *A JJ is deferring new aircraft deliveries which would have been used to expand NA and Europe services this year. UA is in a good position to pick up that business.
     
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  11. Golfingboy
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    Golfingboy Gold Member

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    I personally think the EWR-GRU flight will be axed and IAH-GRU will be upgauged to a 777 for a net loss of 72 or 79 seats [depending if they use the CO 777 or UA 777] OR a small increase in seats if they swap one of the routes to a 747... Don't forget JJ also serves JFK-GRU as well to cater to the NYC-GRU O/D market. This will also free up a slot at EWR for the new UA to start a new international route or add frequencies on an already strong performing long haul route. IAD/ORD/EWR pretty much overlaps each other on the GRU route, which results in a lot of duplication... With Taca joining *A, I think we might see UA starting LAX-LIM.

    So, the TYO-GRU crowd will be covered well by ORD and IAH... GIG is a weaker premium market than GRU and EZE for sure, AA does not serve F to GIG. GIG only has IAD and IAH [777 and 762] and I think IAH-GIG will go to a first class less 763, which will result in a subtle capacity increase of ~30 seats. If GIG sees any new routes or significant capacity increases I think it will be a seasonal one from Nov/Dec through April for the Holiday traffic and the carnival.

    My predictions in the next few years for the deep South American market...

    GRU- 1x daily 777 to IAH, 1x daily 777 or 747 to ORD, 1x daily 777 to IAD
    GIG- 1x daily 777 to IAD, 1x daily 763 to IAH [possible seasonal upgauge to 777], 1x daily seasonal 763 to ORD
    EZE- 1x daily 777 to IAH, 1x daily 763 to IAD
    SCL- 1x daily 763 to IAH
     
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  12. jbcarioca
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    jbcarioca Gold Member

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    But for one thing, this compares well with what US South American marketing people have said. the upgauge to 777 they plan as soon as they have 787's to replace the 777's on other routes...so they have said. It is popular mto claim GIG to be a leisure market, forgetting that 27% of total Rio de Janeiro area employment is due to the oil and gas industry, and that is feeding full premium cabins and lots of freight in most markets. Of course MIA is almost all tourism. I am in F regularly on JJ flights to JFK, always full, as are the F and J flights to FRA from GIG. Yields of premium seats our of GIG remain very high according to what I read and hear.

    GIG has seen quite a bit of new capacity this year with more coming early next year. EK apparently has already strong advance bookings for premium seats for their new DXB-BCN-GIG-EZE flight through next March. On a purely personal basis I often must change dates in order to get premium seats going anywhere out of GIG while I can easily get space from GRU if i am willing to connect. I often recognize my traveling companions, most of whom are related to oil and gas. Premium prices for most locations have also nearly doubled out of GIG during the last year while traffic has continued to rise. I have no knowledge of UA/CO, but have seen this with AA, JJ, DL, US, LH and AF.

    If the US conditions remain poor, and if Brazil, specifically, continues to account for such a large proportion of US airline margins, I would expect these upgauges and new flights also, if there are available permissions.
    Lastly, the build up to the World Cup and the Olympics is creating a construction and infrastructure build of major proportions. Albeit almost all of it being late, there is majro premium traffic at present and more coming in support fo all that activity. That is one more reason why GIG market conditions have changed so much in the last year.

    Three years ago F space from GIG was easily available where offered. AA had a 777 through GRU, and BA had a 744 also through GRU. When they both changed to GIG nonstops the F went away. Back then the oil and gas industry was just beginning and the World Cup and Olympics had not happened. Nobody wanted GIG very much then.

    Now office space in Rio is as expensive as midtown Manhattan and vacancies do not exist. Everything new is bought/rented while still in construction. Business demand is very high. How long will this go on? Is it a bubble? I do not know. In the meantime carriers are making lots of money at GIG and wanting to make more.
     
  13. Bay Pisco Shark
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    Bay Pisco Shark Gold Member

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    As it is, UA isn't selling many F seats to EZE (They offer 5 paid seats a day, and I doubt they average one or two paid per flight) and we know how many F seats to EZE that CO offers ;). LA gave up on its 5 seat F cabin a few years back (when it went to an all-flat J cabin), and AA is aircraft-specific on what South America flights get F.

    What we don't know (but revenue management does) is how many people are buying C/J so they can upgrade into F, but wouldn't do so if there was no F cabin, i.e., they'd just buy Y to UG into C/J.
     
  14. EWR764
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    EWR764 Silver Member

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    I'd be blown away if UA gave up on EZE. It is a very high-yield market.

    I just don't see UA giving up on the NYC-Brazil market. They do well on the route, and a connection from EWR/LGA/JFK to GRU via IAD is not competitive with the nonstop options available.
     
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  15. Flyer1976
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    Flyer1976 Gold Member

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    Thats why I am thinking ORD will be dropped and something else added like SCL from EWR/IAD.
     
  16. Ygor
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    Ygor Gold Member

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    I doubt that. ORD is frequently full and a japan feeder as noted previously. Looking for award seats to GRU via ORD was next to impossible, and revenue tickets never route you via ORD from the east coast (PHL more specifically). If ORD-GRU was not full, wouldnt they try to get pax via there?

    Ticket prices to Brazil have gone nowhere but up. This would tell me demand is strong. Ditto for EZE. I think DL has a sign on they counter at EZE to non revs warning them that the planes are very cargo heavy and that even though it may seem seats are open, they fly empty to compensate for cargo.

    I for one would love to see more options to GIG.Customs at GIG is much more relaxed than at GRU, so bringing gifts to my relatives there is way better going via GIG. I am on JJ from NYC to GIG this October, and it is the 3rd time I have taking this route. (EWR via GRU is prohibitive - too $$$)

    As someone noted above, the economy in Brazil is roaring right now, and not to mention the favorable exchange rate to Brazilians, making travel to the US cheaper than it has been for 15 years. All this will help increase traffic.
    I chatted with a BF concierge once at IAH before getting on the GIG flight, and he was telling me about the oil and gas ppl who buy last minute BF seats all the time, and how that's where they make their money.
     
  17. Geo
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    Geo Gold Member

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    EZE is a growing petroleum work airport. It is a logical place to go to from IAH. All of the Brazilian offshore crews make GIG a very difficult place to use a SWU or find an R fare.
     
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  18. Golfingboy
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    Golfingboy Gold Member

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    And the tiny 762 C cabin does not help... That is why I think this route will get the 777, probably once the 787 replaces the 777 on IAH-LOS in mid/end-2012 they will give the 762 the boot and put the 777 on IAH-EZE. The 762's days are numbered [not CASM friendly and strong resell potential since they are relatively new] and I can see UA retiring them once the 787 arrives and after they start IAH-AKL.

    What I meant by having 4 routes to GRU will be cut down to probably 3 is not by capacity cuts, but rather reallocating capacity among IAH/ORD/EWR/IAD to streamline operations and eliminate duplication. It is also cheaper, operations wise through consolidation, to fly 2x IAD-GRU than 1x EWR-GRU and IAD-GRU...
     
  19. ande777emt
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    ande777emt Gold Member

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    As stated before, there's a substantial amount of O&D between NYC and GRU I don't think UA/CO would simply hand the O&D corporate market over to AA/JJ. Once JJ gets more 77W's in, I think it's likely GRU-JFK will be one of the routes that has at least one flight upgauged to a 77W.
     
  20. Golfingboy
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    Golfingboy Gold Member

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    Then maybe IAD-GRU will be moved over EWR or vice versa... IAH is definitely staying due to oil businses, Asian traffic, and west coast traffic. EWR/ORD/IAD all serve the same "traffic" except for O/D, so probably the market with the weakest O/D demand will see their GRU flight be moved to the other hub.

    Also it serves business travelers better if they have 2x XXX-GRU that flies at a different time during the day than having ORD/EWR/IAD-GRU all departing the hub within 1 hour of each other.

    Is there any way to look at the load factors for all GRU flights from the last 12 months?
     
  21. RestlessLocationSyndrome
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    RestlessLocationSyndrome Silver Member

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    I don't think there is anyway UA/CO will give up on the IAH - EZE flight. There was a valid reason for UA pre-merger to give up on the markets and that was because UA was not very strong to Central and South America. However, this is CO's strength and one of the reason's I believe that the merger was very attractive for total network coverage.
     

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