Will there be a noticeable upgrade rise on March 1?

Discussion in 'Delta Air Lines | SkyMiles' started by Indiana Delta Diamond, Feb 21, 2011.  |  Print Topic

  1. Indiana Delta Diamond
    Original Member

    Indiana Delta Diamond Silver Member

    Messages:
    219
    Likes Received:
    164
    Status Points:
    420
    Some Medallions won't be Medallions again on March for or they will get downgraded.

    Right now I am close to perfect on upgrades (only missing a same day standby option)...most of them are cleared at the window. But I am especially curious for lower elite levels.

    Also, will the SkyClubs be less crowded...some of the DMs with free memberships won't be DMs any more.

    Personally, I think there will be some difference on upgrades but minimal effect on SkyClubs.
     
    flyingdawg and Gargoyle like this.
  2. MSPeconomist
    Original Member

    MSPeconomist Gold Member

    Messages:
    58,563
    Likes Received:
    98,528
    Status Points:
    20,020
    In the past, it did seem to be noticeably more difficult to obtain upgrades in January and February, but this of course depends on the specific routes, day of week, time of day, etc.

    However, this seemed like a particularly generous year for DMQM, etc., so perhaps not many have lost status, especially with rollover, despite the bad economy. The actual numbers are highly confidential.

    The unknown factor is DL's decision to "monetize" FC.

    For SCs, note that most DMs have alternative ways to gain admission to SCs (BE ticket or upgrade, AmEx Plat charge card, SC membership before DM, the five SC day passes for $99 deal late last year, etc.). I doubt than former many DMs who continue to fly DL will be sitting at the gate rather than in the lounge.
     
  3. Indiana Delta Diamond
    Original Member

    Indiana Delta Diamond Silver Member

    Messages:
    219
    Likes Received:
    164
    Status Points:
    420
    I agree with all of your post except this part. I, for one, would never, ever, ever pay $99 for five day passes. I think you clearly over estimate the number the AMEX Plat cardmembers...and only international BE tickets get SC.

    Mostly, I think there will be fewer, it will be just a little fewer that no one will notice.
     
  4. TheMadBrewer
    Original Member

    TheMadBrewer Silver Member

    Messages:
    108
    Likes Received:
    158
    Status Points:
    420
    You also have to figure in that GMs will now have the use of SC on international itineraries and DMs who fall to PMs will still be there on international flights. Not a big population, but something as I'd guess there are a lot of GM's out there these days.

    Even though I am a SC member (and DM) I would have bought the 5 day passes for $99 just to give to family members (most of home are flying on my miles!) in case of delays or long layovers. DIdn't have any flights when they were sold and I didn't want to risk a Freedom Fondle without some MQMs in the equation. (Actually, it was just laziness)

    My father went from nothing to PM and will go back to nothing without a soft landing (which I don't expect) The PM came about mostly with a well timed M fare (plus miles upgrade) ATL-TPE during the double/triple promo in 2009. I think he took two domestic flights as PM (ATL-LAX and back) and got upgraded on one. Used the SC in ATL maybe two/three times. So he didn't impact things much one way or the other. There probably are a lot of folks in the same situation and so while numerically the numbers may go down, it might not effect things as much as we hope.
     
  5. Seat1A
    Original Member

    Seat1A Silver Member

    Messages:
    36
    Likes Received:
    25
    Status Points:
    145
    it makes logical sense -- on march 1 a lot of people will move down in status, and very few will move up. i suspect the numbers aren't small, either -- there's a lot of churn in any year, and 2010 was light for MQM promos compared to the previous couple of years. i expect that delta is aiming for the same numbers, but they're going to be different people in 2011 -- business travel is back and promos are down. if that's true, the churn should be higher than normal this year.

    i hope it works out that way -- of four segments this week, i've only been upgraded on one. of the other three, one looks pretty bad, and the other two look impossible. (ATL-DFW is a joke as a gold..)

    random note: back in the days of 800-mile segment upgrades, delta would allow non-medallions to use leftover upgrades after falling out of status. i cleared BOS-ATL as a non-medallion that way once..
     
    BondAir007 and secretsea18 like this.
  6. MSPeconomist
    Original Member

    MSPeconomist Gold Member

    Messages:
    58,563
    Likes Received:
    98,528
    Status Points:
    20,020
    Of course there are people switching programs, but they're not flying DL, probably not since January 1 so as to have the best chance of making elite in their new program.
     
  7. Indiana Delta Diamond
    Original Member

    Indiana Delta Diamond Silver Member

    Messages:
    219
    Likes Received:
    164
    Status Points:
    420
    We can really notice those people gone, can't we?
     
  8. Mike1625
    Original Member

    Mike1625 Silver Member

    Messages:
    246
    Likes Received:
    353
    Status Points:
    460
    As a silver, I really do notice this, and love my upgrade chances March until about August.
     
  9. MSPeconomist
    Original Member

    MSPeconomist Gold Member

    Messages:
    58,563
    Likes Received:
    98,528
    Status Points:
    20,020
    They're gone, but they're not occupying seats in the plane either. Ultimately it's the number of elites versus the number of FC seats available that determines upgrade percentages. If the departed elites are replaced by kettles, perhaps because DL lowers prices to fill aircraft, they it's better for us, but if instead DL appeals to FFs by offering DMQMs or other services and benefits on the route, it could be a wash with the same number of elites competing for upgrades. My guess is that the truth is in the middle; upgrades are somewhat better but one cannot assume that the departing elites aren't replaced sometimes by other elites..
     
  10. Frozentech
    Original Member

    Frozentech Silver Member

    Messages:
    94
    Likes Received:
    150
    Status Points:
    320
    Here's my question - in a few days the upgrade window for March 1st flights will be upon us. Will Delta's IT take note of impending status drops, or will we have people up front next week who cleared as say, DM or PM but are boarding as lower status ? More to the point, will some former DM trump me for a flat-bed on the 777 LAX-ATL on Tuesday ? [​IMG]
     
  11. MSPeconomist
    Original Member

    MSPeconomist Gold Member

    Messages:
    58,563
    Likes Received:
    98,528
    Status Points:
    20,020
    I remember this being discussed last year, but I don't remember the conclusion. For something like SWU usage or elite upgrades from full Y, some of these would have been done before the end of the year, when it wasn't clear who would achieve what elite levels and I can't imagine these upgrades being rescinded.

    For EUA, especially with rollover, at five or six days before March 1, one could imagine an extreme case of someone doing a last-minute big MR to regain top status by March 1. So should they be upgraded at their window when they may or may not have that status by flight time?

    It's not your question, but I remember that when DM started last year, I had a flight on March 1 which upgraded at my T-5 window as a PM; I did not get additional DM priority, but at the gate I would have been ahead of PMs.
     
  12. BondAir007
    Original Member

    BondAir007 Gold Member

    Messages:
    1,221
    Likes Received:
    4,998
    Status Points:
    2,425
    I wonder about this too. I think there will be some changes in upgrades, because the change in travel patterns. Plus a lot of other things. Who one knows what Delta will do.
     
  13. cfischer
    Original Member

    cfischer Silver Member

    Messages:
    88
    Likes Received:
    38
    Status Points:
    205
    With rollover I am not sure it will be as significant as in past years. I can't complain, with 93% last year and 9/9 so far this year I am happy [​IMG]
     
    MSPeconomist likes this.
  14. alpinesoccer
    Original Member

    alpinesoccer Silver Member

    Messages:
    211
    Likes Received:
    616
    Status Points:
    485
    As a PM in 2009/2010, and a gold for 2011 (74,630 MQM's in 2010) I will be lower on the upgrade list. I am one of those being talked about that will be downgrading Medallion status, but you don't have to worry about me. I fly TATL with connecting domestics only and am always in paid B (company policy). If you are willing to pay fully Y domestically, then you would be ahead of me.

    However, I got 24,630 Rollovers and participated in the Plat Amex MR -> Skymiles promo with 25,000 bonus MQMs and now am sitting at 49,630 MQMs without a flight yet on DL. Chose to not push over the boundary b/c I will hit 75,000 in May after my next three TATL legs giving me Platinum for 2011/2012 instead of just qualifying for 2010/2011
    It will be a very generous year for me and I plan on utilizing domestic upgrades when i quit my overseas assignment this fall and have more time to travel domestically.
     
  15. techguru
    Original Member

    techguru Silver Member

    Messages:
    321
    Likes Received:
    376
    Status Points:
    520
    Yes this will be interesting to see. Have missed 2 upgrades this year so far -- rest all upgraded hard to tell.
     
  16. MSPeconomist
    Original Member

    MSPeconomist Gold Member

    Messages:
    58,563
    Likes Received:
    98,528
    Status Points:
    20,020
    Remember that each of us ultimately observe a yes or no for each "domestic" flight we take, augmented by information about the timing of the upgrade, the nature of the waitlist, what we think we know about flight loads, capacities in Y and FC, elite status of others, nonrevs, etc. Every instance is highly individualistic and subject to many random influences, starting with IROPs throughout the system. Don't infer too much from your own experiences.
     

Share This Page