Will Award redemptions change with the new RDM earnings change?

Discussion in 'United Airlines | MileagePlus' started by 8MiHi, Mar 15, 2015.  |  Print Topic

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What awards will see a rise in demand and which will see a decline under post 3/1 MP?

Poll closed Apr 14, 2015.
  1. I don't expect much change.

    5 vote(s)
    41.7%
  2. I expect premium cabin awards to rise.

    6 vote(s)
    50.0%
  3. I expect premium cabin awards to fall.

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. I expect Economy cabin awards to rise.

    4 vote(s)
    33.3%
  5. I expect Economy awards to fall.

    2 vote(s)
    16.7%
  6. I expect *A awards to rise.

    6 vote(s)
    50.0%
  7. I expect *A awards to fall.

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. 8MiHi

    8MiHi Silver Member

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    With higher spend fliers getting more of the RDMs issued and budget fliers getting significantly fewer, will RDM spend patterns change? While the accounting firm of Price Waterhouse Coopers suggests that the overall issuance of RDMs will only drop slightly, they concluded that 85% of fliers will see either substantial gains (40% of FFs, pretty much only HVFs) or substantial reductions (45%, generally LVFs ) in miles earned.

    What award redemptions will see a rise in demand and which will see a decline?

    I have created this non-scientific and somewhat incomplete poll to try to pull out some thoughts from MilePoint's group of experienced FFs on how the new scheme for earning miles might affect the use of miles. You are limited to three answers, but you can explain why that's not good enough.
     
  2. MSPeconomist
    Original Member

    MSPeconomist Gold Member

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    What's the time frame? I could envision coach redemptions to first rise and them fall as those who primarily fly coach earn fewer RDMs.
     
  3. 8MiHi

    8MiHi Silver Member

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    I would ask for longer term changes. Do you imagine coach fliers giving up and just using what they have?
     
  4. MSPeconomist
    Original Member

    MSPeconomist Gold Member

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    I envision somewhat of a panic to redeem, in some cases before status is lost as people change strategies from being loyal to a FF program to acting like a free agent who purchases the cheapest ticket. Wiith some airlines, one must be concerned that inactivity will cause miles to expire.

    Fewer miles being earned will mean that those purchasing cheap coach fares will have fewer miles to spend in a longer term equilibrium.
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2015
  5. 8MiHi

    8MiHi Silver Member

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    There may be something to that hypothesis among the budget sensitive elite fliers. Saver award coach inventory is better as a Premier and saver award premium cabin inventory is better at Platinum and higher. Some FFs who perceive that the grass may be greener elsewhere may well be stampeded towards using their RDMs sooner.
     
  6. 8MiHi

    8MiHi Silver Member

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    Seems people expect either little change in award travel or increases in premium and *A awards.
    Given that there will be a small drop in RDMs issued, a big increase in RDMs awarded to HVFs and a big decrease to LVFs, one might conclude that overall reward travel could decline as I would judge that HVFs might be more likely to use their miles on Premium cabin travel and longer trip travel . If bigger ticket awards are issued, then economy awards would necessarily have to decline.
    Since we have almost no data to work with, this can only be an opinion, and not an easy judgement.
     
  7. Dublin_rfk

    Dublin_rfk Gold Member

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    Post removed
     

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