who's sorry now? UAL earnings -38% net/stock cratering/PRASM down after destroying their FF program

Discussion in 'United Airlines | MileagePlus' started by ahappyelite, Apr 25, 2016.  |  Print Topic

  1. ahappyelite

    ahappyelite Silver Member

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    The profit is all that matters people at UAL-the whole executive staff-turning in another fine performance with a 38% decrease in net profit, significant decrease in miles travelled, drop in PRASM and a stock trading at near a one year low, fittingly as we mark the anniversary of the destruction of the Mileage Plus program. (Yes, a lot of people noticed and more are noticing everyday including credit card churnees.)
    With oil low, no more pesky loyal customers who don't pay through the nose, and despite their best efforts at collusion, it turns out that lots of people (including close-in biz customers, it appears) are still smarting from the gratuitous and unnecessary war these people declared against people who went out of their way to fly with United (despite is being such an ordeal.) I didn't think I was a big spender, but now I have thousands and thousands of dollars that I would have-but NEVER WILL-spend with these gangstas. And the media blackout is incredible....No mention ever of the many tens of thousands of people who feel and spend like I do when it comes to the new, no frequent flyer program aircartel. No one left to lie to and few remaining cannibalization opportunities spell tough quarters ahead for the counters of beans and their speculative overlords.
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2016
  2. satman40

    satman40 Gold Member

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    They earned $1.23 April Quarter report, and estimates was 1.17, that is a 5% surprise to the upside, and the stock is up for the last 2 years,

    It was down today, one point, but investing is not a one day commitment...

    Are you looking at IBD, or The Journal...or a blog,

    I am not invested, in UAL, but I do make a living trading stocks, you need to check the charts and earning reports, every investor does,

    The CEO of This Airline Bought $1 Million Worth of Stock Last Week

    Let’s begin our discussion by looking into the insider buying at United Continental Holdings Inc. (NYSE:UAL), which had its top executive buy a sizable block of shares last week. Chief Executive Officer and President Oscar Munoz purchased 19,800 shares on Friday at prices that ranged from $50.50 to $50.55 per share, boosting his overall holding to 163,675 shares. The $1 million-transaction has received a lot of attention from the media, as the transaction is one of the most voluminous insider purchases at the company since early 2014.

    My guess is some one put his money where his mouth is, and he has an inside track.
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2016
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  3. Steve GadFly
    Original Member

    Steve GadFly Gold Member

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    Wow...for someone who intends to never fly UA again, he sure seems to spend a lot of time in the UA forum :rolleyes:
     
  4. ahappyelite

    ahappyelite Silver Member

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    I hope Oscar is better at picking stocks than running an airline people want to fly.
    He can buy a $ million more today at a significant discount since the stock dropped 10% this week alone (since he laid out a million bucks, in fact.)
    The airlines and their lobbyists, Airlines for Wall Street are currently trying to send the message that "we're not as hated as we were." In fact, this industry is so radioactive, and has burned so many people who are turned off on air travel altogether they risk never getting them back, that even this cozy little cartel, who have a stranglehold on the nations skyways that they might still immolate, which is truly incredible. How many people who used to enjoy flying breath a sigh of relief when the alarm clock rings and they don't have to head to the airport (and with the avaricious and shortsighted destruction of frequent flyer programs, there is one more good reason to pass on the shambolic shambles that is US air travel?)
    It is truly amazing to watch the media coddle this industry which totally spins every piece of bad news. This is an industry that is absolutely unreachable and totally callous when you need them, but seem at the ready to churn out the most inaccurate, deceptive self serving drivel to the press which seems incapable of asking hard questions: here's one "How many frequent flyers did you lose when you destroyed your FF program?" How hard is it to get a steady stream of churnees to replace them (hint: The Chinese are out at the moment.)
    read the complaint forums on-line for a chilling assortment of airline horror stories, almost all of which have the ring of truth to them. Love to read the emails that come into United, must be incredible just in one day. Why doesn't the press ask to see them?
     
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2016
  5. Mackieman
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    Mackieman Gold Member

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  6. davef139

    davef139 Gold Member

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    If you think that UA is only after gaining money, ask an employee how the employee ownership of United went.
     
  7. satman40

    satman40 Gold Member

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    Stock are lone term investments.

    Amazon was down to $1.00 after the crash in 87, and look at it today. I started trading stocks in the early 60s, , and have never invested in the airlines, but AA and UAL has had a better return than your CD's,

    Thank your government for the low interest rates.., talk about market Minuplators

    Chrysler had a labor problem in the 60s, and was pulled out by employee partnership...

    Business is a commitment, and profit is not a dirty word..

    Many a man has priced himself out of a job..
     
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  8. ahappyelite

    ahappyelite Silver Member

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    this is only a business when it comes time to taking profits and paying ceo's lavishly.
    it is more like a utility
    the taxpayers let these people use our skies (protected by the military), build the airports and infrastructure, roads and transit thereto, fund the law enforcement, regulation and atc functions and the legal system. Taxpayer money goes directly into the pockets of hedge funds and Wall street gamblers-major spongers of taxpayer welfare...... the aircos are able to scam customers blatantly because of a legal and regulatory system that is weak-every day customers are scammed, surprised to find out that the scams are permitted by a group of overseers who are asleep at the switch/in bed with the airlines.
    and the mergers are the worst thing that ever happened to u.s. air travel and true competition, no matter how you dress it up. Air travel in the country is a race to the bottom, to the lowest common denominator, with no incentive to improve (even business travel is worse than ever, in most cases.) We need a dozen or more airlines actually competing to attract people by everyday improvement. Instead, US air travel gets worse- a more grim ordeal every day, the tensions palpable from the moment you arrive at the airport til you experience the bliss of deplaning. Even on a 60 minute flight you can cut the passenger angst with a knife and people are hoarded around like the old Chicago Union Stockyards. We are all flying Spirit, now.
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2016
  9. satman40

    satman40 Gold Member

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    I am 75 years old, and everything is an investment.

    You are complaining, and will look back and realize you do not have enough to pay your bills...

    When you get older you could care less, about the things you cry about.
     
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  10. colpuck
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    colpuck Gold Member

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    Dude I'll get off your lawn.
     
  11. satman40

    satman40 Gold Member

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  12. Counsellor
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    Counsellor Gold Member

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    You raise an interesting point: Can (and do) the airlines figure out how many Frequent Flyers are lost from a given change?

    I really wonder. Oh, I suppose they get a few irate letters, some perhaps even enclosing a cut-up FF membership card (if anyone carries them anymore), but I suspect most were like me after the UA transition to Continental dba UA. I was disgusted, but didn't waste time writing the CEO about it, making threats to never fly UA again, or canceling my Mileage Plus account, I just quietly transferred my flying to AA and went about my business.

    Besides, I had about a million MP miles accumulated that I wanted to burn off, so I'm burning those instead of burning bridges.

    But seriously, I realize they can do data mining, but even if they did check my account and discover that I haven't had one revenue mile on United since whenever the merger completed, would they necessarily conclude that the change to the MP program motivated my precipitous drop in revenue miles? Why that, instead of a reaction to the deterioration in service, or a change in my flight city-pair pattern due to changed employment, or even a lessening in flying due to a personal situation like retirement or illness?

    I suppose they could check to see how many elites did drastically reduce their flying on United, and send out surveys inquiring as to the reason, but if they did so, I am unaware of it as I was not one of those surveyed.

    Still, you'd think if that was a issue that even vaguely worried them, their marketing folks would have tried to find out the reason, or at least would have targeted such folk with special promotions designed to get then back in a United seat, and I have no evidence to indicate they did any such thing. So, I can only infer that either they're not hurting, or they really don't care.
     
  13. ahappyelite

    ahappyelite Silver Member

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    There are no airlines, really. It is "whiz kids" from private equity and hedge funds who are constantly seeking out ways to fleece ordinary customers- "What is the maximum possible price we can get on each seat, and how can we keep costs rock bottom?" When there was competition, there was a reason to create incentives and spring surprises on each other. Now in airport after airport one or two airlines rule trying to fix prices, Since the unnecessary and corrupt mergers, it has been all collusion- a race to the bottom, even with the new 10cents worth of free biscuits-which the media refers to as improvements. However, there may be a customer revolt under way. There is no reason to stay with any carrier, and customers will fly Spirit and Norwegian and there are tons of people, I think, not taking discretionary trips. People get sick of being treated as algorithmic calculations. And air travel really does suck (even for biz customers, they do not appreciate the always jammed first class sections, surprisingly uncomfortable seats in many cabins, overfull lounges and the atc delays and remember their benefits were slashed also in terms of redemptions.) Two years ago the media headlines should have screamed "FF programs ended, airlines steal billions from customers." Instead, they fostered the notion that there were modifications (when it really was gutting) and a tremendous number of people have only found out about this decimation when they get their statements. The aergogangsteros developed a unified, marketing slogan: TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT. Which is high stakes indeed. They destroyed a lot of good will. But after all this is not about anything long term: this is avaricious, greedy, short sighted, antisocial, how much did we make this quarter? Congress should act. Aerial mass transit should not be put in the hands of these parasites/vultures. Lots of people are struggling cash wise which is why UAL should scrap its absurdly high weekend fares (with oil so cheap)-people vote each week with their wallets which is why almost no route ever sells out, giving you some insight into possible headwinds from the non top tier spending public.
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2016
  14. satman40

    satman40 Gold Member

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    If you lower you price 10%, to make everyone happy, you will need to increase your volume 25% to make the same profit..

    Anyone want to work a little harder...

    90% if the people retire flat broke, they spend most of the money they make without a thought for tomorrow..

    You plan for success, failing comes naturally...., but it is easy to blame others..

    UA 3308 Is late tonight ...bad weather...wife on the flight...
     
  15. iolaire
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    iolaire Gold Member

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    @ahappyelite at some point you need to update your name! It doesn't seem like you are very happy with your elite status.
     
  16. HaveMilesWillTravel
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    HaveMilesWillTravel Gold Member

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    If they looked at my account, they would see a former six-or-seven-year-in-a-row 1K who

    - achieved MM status in his last year as 1K
    - was probably close to the required PQD spend in some years, but definitely not a high value customer (but also not mileage runner; just somewhat frugal traveler without expense account)
    - moved away from the SFO hub
    - dropped spend/EQM earning to way-below-silver requirement (but remains MM gold)

    All this happened around the time they introduced PQD and then revenue-based RDM earnings. I think it would be tricky for them to figure out what ultimately caused them to lose most of my revenue business (to AS).

    - if I had stayed at SFO, I still would not have aimed for 1K status with the PQD requirement
    - if they hadn't introduced PQD requirements, I still would have moved, and my new location makes AS the better choice for me (though UA is still an option)

    All in all I am glad the MM status came through at the right time and allows me to retain UA/*G status. Life as a free agent is good.
     
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  17. rggale
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    rggale Gold Member

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    Just a quick comment about the alleged thinning of elite ranks when the company changes something.

    As each airline continues to make dramatic program changes almost annually that are really not frequent flyer friendly, I think the amount they care speaks volumes.

    Remember, for every disgruntled elite customer who leaves UA, another one comes from the 'greener pastures' to which the former is headed.
     
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  18. Dublin_rfk

    Dublin_rfk Gold Member

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    Do I like the changes being made? For the most part NO! My dislike is tempered when I flug with no status friends. Free checked bags, better (not great) seats, early boarding, upgrades and that's only in the air side. Checking into a hotel and being upgraded to concierge lounge level and breakfast. Yes there are many things to complain about (poor / no service) but a reduction in perks is low on my list.
     
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  19. ahappyelite

    ahappyelite Silver Member

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    Egged on by Wall Street, the cartel aimed for the fences, expecting that a nation held hostage would have no choices, so within a few short years they destroyed air travel, really wrecked it (also must have thought young people would never know that it doesn't have to be so awful.) Nothing was sacred, there were literally dozens if not scores of degrades. (Even bereavement fares had to go under this gusher of instant greed-gotta fund the ex ceos $37M severance.) Then they all competed for high spending business travelers. When they went to a basically corrupt system of dollars=miles, even many of those spending other people's money are being told they can't pay $700 to go to Chicago (to get miles) when another carrier is going for $80. Then it turns out, the airlines have A LOT OF SEATS to sell even when they collude. There are weekends, late nights, mid week, the winter, and flights that are empty coming back from places they were full going to. No doubt there was a significant number of mid to low level spenders who took trips motivated at least in part by the rewards program. It leaked out (the media sat on it) much slower than it should have that today's frequent flyer programs are utterly worthless in terms of miles and redemptions for most everyone-sort of like staying at the Hilton 5x's a year, why bother even entering your number? So it would be interesting to see the internal financials (and the press should stop printing spoon fed spin and ask the airline ceos to crawl out from under the rocks they hide under to provide them) to see how many frequent flyers are finding other ways to spend their money, and how many business folks are avoiding the hassle of the trip to the airport (think NE corridor, etc.) or going private aviation...Since a lot of this is not divulged, it is hard to say for sure....but look at United's weekend specials, they must have 70 this weekend and like all other weekends only about maybe three or four ever sell out. How many people would take trips when there was a FF programs, but won't now. It can;t be insignificant in a nation that is starved for cash. And let's face it, business travelers are too savvy not to know that the airlines are treating them like a bunch of shmucks with so much degradation. And alienating so many customers, making enemies out a vast swatth of people, can catch up with even the mightiest enterprises. Norwegian is gonna do a crusher on them (which is why these free marketeer impersonators are begging for government intervention) Looking forward to coming back from Europe on West Jet after shipping it over (still fond memories of Continental, though) before the gangsta takeover.
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2016
  20. Counsellor
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    Counsellor Gold Member

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    You really have to buy some paragraph markers, since it appears the <return> key on your computer is broken.

    Seriously, it is very hard to plow through your post. If you broke it into paragraphs, or discrete thoughts, it would be much easier for us to follow what you're saying.
     
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  21. ahappyelite

    ahappyelite Silver Member

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    If you want to see the hole the airlines have dug by alienating and declaring war on people, look at Ryanair which is admittedly profitable (and on time!) but which struggles to sell seats even at $12 on some flights-people just think: "Life is too short for that ordeal." Even a flight to Maui on an airless, packed, one aisle, inconveniently scheduled plane jammed into a middle seat, with a long security line on both sides (caused by airline scheduling decisions) and not enough miles to make it worth entering your number becomes much less appealing. The "useful idiot" passengers have to play along for the post frequent flyer airlines (PFFA's) to deliver the mega profits they keep promising Wall Street. United and Delta both took big hits on their stock just yesterday when Air France pretty much said people are willing to fly, but only if it's dirt cheap (the seats are way less valuable thanks to the bean counters who ruined the ff model for short term profit.) The media should do some hard digging here and stop regurgitating the tiny trickle of information the airlines drip out.
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2016
  22. rggale
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    rggale Gold Member

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    Dear Sir,
    I suggest you use The Dwight D. Eisenhower National System of Interstate and Defense Highways for your domestic travel needs. Cunard Line also runs service to both Southampton and Hamburg for your intercontinental travel desires.

    Perhaps you'll find these options to better suit your needs.
     
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  23. colpuck
    Original Member

    colpuck Gold Member

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    Hamlet Act 1 Scene 1
    ACT I
    SCENE I. Elsinore. A platform before the castle.



    FRANCISCO at his post. Enter to him BERNARDOBERNARDOWho's there?
    FRANCISCONay, answer me: stand, and unfold yourself.
    BERNARDOLong live the king!
    FRANCISCOBernardo?
    BERNARDOHe.
    FRANCISCOYou come most carefully upon your hour.
    BERNARDO'Tis now struck twelve; get thee to bed, Francisco.
    FRANCISCOFor this relief much thanks: 'tis bitter cold,
    And I am sick at heart.
    BERNARDOHave you had quiet guard?
    FRANCISCONot a mouse stirring.
    BERNARDOWell, good night.
    If you do meet Horatio and Marcellus,
    The rivals of my watch, bid them make haste.
    FRANCISCOI think I hear them. Stand, ho! Who's there?
    Enter HORATIO and MARCELLUS

    HORATIOFriends to this ground.
    MARCELLUSAnd liegemen to the Dane.
    FRANCISCOGive you good night.
    MARCELLUSO, farewell, honest soldier:
    Who hath relieved you?
    FRANCISCOBernardo has my place.
    Give you good night.
    Exit

    MARCELLUSHolla! Bernardo!
    BERNARDOSay,
    What, is Horatio there?
    HORATIOA piece of him.
    BERNARDOWelcome, Horatio: welcome, good Marcellus.
    MARCELLUSWhat, has this thing appear'd again to-night?
    BERNARDOI have seen nothing.
    MARCELLUSHoratio says 'tis but our fantasy,
    And will not let belief take hold of him
    Touching this dreaded sight, twice seen of us:
    Therefore I have entreated him along
    With us to watch the minutes of this night;
    That if again this apparition come,
    He may approve our eyes and speak to it.
    HORATIOTush, tush, 'twill not appear.
    BERNARDOSit down awhile;
    And let us once again assail your ears,
    That are so fortified against our story
    What we have two nights seen.
    HORATIOWell, sit we down,
    And let us hear Bernardo speak of this.
    BERNARDOLast night of all,
    When yond same star that's westward from the pole
    Had made his course to illume that part of heaven
    Where now it burns, Marcellus and myself,
    The bell then beating one,--
    Enter Ghost

    MARCELLUSPeace, break thee off; look, where it comes again!
    BERNARDOIn the same figure, like the king that's dead.
    MARCELLUSThou art a scholar; speak to it, Horatio.
    BERNARDOLooks it not like the king? mark it, Horatio.
    HORATIOMost like: it harrows me with fear and wonder.
    BERNARDOIt would be spoke to.
    MARCELLUSQuestion it, Horatio.
    HORATIOWhat art thou that usurp'st this time of night,
    Together with that fair and warlike form
    In which the majesty of buried Denmark
    Did sometimes march? by heaven I charge thee, speak!
    MARCELLUSIt is offended.
    BERNARDOSee, it stalks away!
    HORATIOStay! speak, speak! I charge thee, speak!
    Exit Ghost

    MARCELLUS'Tis gone, and will not answer.
    BERNARDOHow now, Horatio! you tremble and look pale:
    Is not this something more than fantasy?
    What think you on't?
    HORATIOBefore my God, I might not this believe
    Without the sensible and true avouch
    Of mine own eyes.
    MARCELLUSIs it not like the king?
    HORATIOAs thou art to thyself:
    Such was the very armour he had on
    When he the ambitious Norway combated;
    So frown'd he once, when, in an angry parle,
    He smote the sledded Polacks on the ice.
    'Tis strange.
    MARCELLUSThus twice before, and jump at this dead hour,
    With martial stalk hath he gone by our watch.
    HORATIOIn what particular thought to work I know not;
    But in the gross and scope of my opinion,
    This bodes some strange eruption to our state.
    MARCELLUSGood now, sit down, and tell me, he that knows,
    Why this same strict and most observant watch
    So nightly toils the subject of the land,
    And why such daily cast of brazen cannon,
    And foreign mart for implements of war;
    Why such impress of shipwrights, whose sore task
    Does not divide the Sunday from the week;
    What might be toward, that this sweaty haste
    Doth make the night joint-labourer with the day:
    Who is't that can inform me?
    HORATIOThat can I;
    At least, the whisper goes so. Our last king,
    Whose image even but now appear'd to us,
    Was, as you know, by Fortinbras of Norway,
    Thereto prick'd on by a most emulate pride,
    Dared to the combat; in which our valiant Hamlet--
    For so this side of our known world esteem'd him--
    Did slay this Fortinbras; who by a seal'd compact,
    Well ratified by law and heraldry,
    Did forfeit, with his life, all those his lands
    Which he stood seized of, to the conqueror:
    Against the which, a moiety competent
    Was gaged by our king; which had return'd
    To the inheritance of Fortinbras,
    Had he been vanquisher; as, by the same covenant,
    And carriage of the article design'd,
    His fell to Hamlet. Now, sir, young Fortinbras,
    Of unimproved mettle hot and full,
    Hath in the skirts of Norway here and there
    Shark'd up a list of lawless resolutes,
    For food and diet, to some enterprise
    That hath a stomach in't; which is no other--
    As it doth well appear unto our state--
    But to recover of us, by strong hand
    And terms compulsatory, those foresaid lands
    So by his father lost: and this, I take it,
    Is the main motive of our preparations,
    The source of this our watch and the chief head
    Of this post-haste and romage in the land.
    BERNARDOI think it be no other but e'en so:
    Well may it sort that this portentous figure
    Comes armed through our watch; so like the king
    That was and is the question of these wars.
    HORATIOA mote it is to trouble the mind's eye.
    In the most high and palmy state of Rome,
    A little ere the mightiest Julius fell,
    The graves stood tenantless and the sheeted dead
    Did squeak and gibber in the Roman streets:
    As stars with trains of fire and dews of blood,
    Disasters in the sun; and the moist star
    Upon whose influence Neptune's empire stands
    Was sick almost to doomsday with eclipse:
    And even the like precurse of fierce events,
    As harbingers preceding still the fates
    And prologue to the omen coming on,
    Have heaven and earth together demonstrated
    Unto our climatures and countrymen.--
    But soft, behold! lo, where it comes again!
    Re-enter Ghost

    I'll cross it, though it blast me. Stay, illusion!
    If thou hast any sound, or use of voice,
    Speak to me:
    If there be any good thing to be done,
    That may to thee do ease and grace to me,
    Speak to me:
    chicken crows

    If thou art privy to thy country's fate,
    Which, happily, foreknowing may avoid, O, speak!
    Or if thou hast uphoarded in thy life
    Extorted treasure in the womb of earth,
    For which, they say, you spirits oft walk in death,
    Speak of it: stay, and speak! Stop it, Marcellus.
    MARCELLUSShall I strike at it with my partisan?
    HORATIODo, if it will not stand.
    BERNARDO'Tis here!
    HORATIO'Tis here!
    MARCELLUS'Tis gone!
    Exit Ghost

    We do it wrong, being so majestical,
    To offer it the show of violence;
    For it is, as the air, invulnerable,
    And our vain blows malicious mockery.
    BERNARDOIt was about to speak, when the chicken crew.
    HORATIOAnd then it started like a guilty thing
    Upon a fearful summons. I have heard,
    The chicken, that is the trumpet to the morn,
    Doth with his lofty and shrill-sounding throat
    Awake the god of day; and, at his warning,
    Whether in sea or fire, in earth or air,
    The extravagant and erring spirit hies
    To his confine: and of the truth herein
    This present object made probation.
    MARCELLUSIt faded on the crowing of the chicken.
    Some say that ever 'gainst that season comes
    Wherein our Saviour's birth is celebrated,
    The bird of dawning singeth all night long:
    And then, they say, no spirit dares stir abroad;
    The nights are wholesome; then no planets strike,
    No fairy takes, nor witch hath power to charm,
    So hallow'd and so gracious is the time.
    HORATIOSo have I heard and do in part believe it.
    But, look, the morn, in russet mantle clad,
    Walks o'er the dew of yon high eastward hill:
    Break we our watch up; and by my advice,
    Let us impart what we have seen to-night
    Unto young Hamlet; for, upon my life,
    This spirit, dumb to us, will speak to him.
    Do you consent we shall acquaint him with it,
    As needful in our loves, fitting our duty?
    MARCELLUSLet's do't, I pray; and I this morning know
    Where we shall find him most conveniently.
    Exeunt
     
  24. ahappyelite

    ahappyelite Silver Member

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    United now forced to do mileage promotions in the face of lost customers, declines in prasm and disintegrating pricing power (and collapse of many close in fares) You have lost many customers, ual bean counters/mbas , who you will never get back because of the get rich quick decision to decimate mileage plus,
     
  25. satman40

    satman40 Gold Member

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    The near-term outlook for airlines isn't appealing.

    Stocks have been bogged down by pictures of travelers spending hours in queues trying to get past security, adding to a gloomy mood coming out of a first-quarter earnings season when the companies disappointed because of margin struggles.

    Jim Cramer said sees no reason for that mood to turn around soon. Cramer said there are more price wars on key routes than many realize, calling into question whether the companies can make second=quarter projections.

    "When you see PE multiples of 5, 6, 7, that means they are not going to make their numbers," Cramer warned. He said that the airlines usually don't get those low multiples unless estimates are about to come down. "And if estimates come down, stocks go down," Cramer said.

    The airlines used their quarterly calls last month to plead for patience, projecting that passenger revenue per available seat mile -- a common industry metric -- would bottom out in the months to come. Delta Air Lines ( DAL) and Southwest Airlines ( LUV) were relatively optimistic about the second half of the year, but American Airlines ( AAL) and United Continental ( UAL) said it could take until 2017 before they see
     

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