Another couple is joining us on a trip to Vegas in late August and want me to book the hotel rooms for a Saturday and Sunday night stay. Now, I'm quite adept at Hotwire and figured out just about every hotel on the strip (even managed to tell the difference between the Mirage and TI based on a reference to Vietnamese food). But the hotel market in Vegas still strikes me as completely alien for a variety of reasons I won't go into right now. My question is: When should I book these rooms? Right now TI is available on Hotwire for $90, but I don't like it and would prefer to wait until the Mirage shows up... if it ever does. The Venetian/Palazzo is available for about $170, but I can't justify buying that until it drops to around $120. Lower prices close to that are available on earlier weekends, so my guess is I could just wait a few weeks. Priceline is out of the question for getting the Mirage, as I'd likely get stuck with TI. How likely is it that the Mirage will appear on Hotwire? Is the Venetian likely to drop as we get closer? Are the prices on Expedia et al. going to drop, too? Or am I gambling at a game I'm likely to lose? Normally I wouldn't mind taking a loss here or there, but when I'm playing another person's hand at the same time, I get a little nervous.