More of a FYI, and this will surely change as the summer schedule undergoes its typical Delta tweaking over the next few months. Nonetheless, some numbers as to where the larger seats are going for the summer schedule are below. This of course doesn't take into account Medallions passing through (meaning, while Atlanta has a lot more Premium seats than say Memphis, a lower elite probably has a better shot of getting the upgrade via MEM). Atlanta - 1022 daily flights. 654 are mainline (64%), 774 total have First/Business Class (72.7%). This comes out to 10.6% of the seats are in the premium cabin. Detroit - 556 daily flights. 180 are mainline (31.8%). 251 total have First/Business Class (45.1%). This comes out to 8.7% of the seats are in the premium cabin. Minneapolis - 486 daily flights. 207 are mainline (42.6%). 320 total have First/Business Class (65.8%). This comes out to 9.9% of the seats are in the premium cabin. Salt Lake City - 307 daily flights. 92 are mainline (30%). 178 total have First/Business Class (58%). This comes out to 9.7% of the seats are in the premium cabin. Memphis - 197 daily flights. 42 are mainline (21.3%). 75 total have First/Business Class (38.1%). This comes out to 7.2% of the seats are in the premium cabin. New York/Kennedy - 183 daily flights. 96 are mainline (52.5%). 124 total have First/Business Class (67.8%). This comes out to 11.1% of the seats are in the premium cabin. New York/LaGuardia - 161 daily flights. 75 are mainline (46.6%). 146 total have First/Business Class (90.7%). This comes out to 11.7% of the seats are in the premium cabin. Cincinnati - 133 daily flights. 31 are mainline (23.3%). 63 total have First/Business Class (46.4%). This comes out to 7.9% of the seats are in the premium cabin. Los Angeles - 93 daily flights. 64 are mainline (68.8%). 83 total have First/Business Class (89.2%). This comes out to 11.2% of the seats are in the premium cabin. This pretty much covers the major connecting points (I have data for Boston, Orlando, Raleigh, Las Vegas, Washington/National, Miami and St. Louis as well, but those numbers with the exception of Raleigh tend to run in the 80-90% range of flights being mainline/with F/J and 11-12% of the seats being F/J). Also, this does take international flights into account too, where there are no complimentary Medallion upgrades (as such, numbers for an airport such as Kennedy are skewed upwards).
Great work in compiling the data. Now if we can just get Delta to share the data on the percentage of Medallions per market and we will be in good shape.
I hate to do this, because I love numbers and data. But I am going to come back and share what I find when I fly. For reference, I am a long time Silver on Delta based in Tampa, who flys for fun and not work, so think lots of weekend trips. I book based on price, but often price is equal on multiple routings. As a silver I try very hard to avoid Atlanta. Atlanta will often mean that I am #23 on the upgrade list fighting for the last seat in first (and for some reason, I never get 22 no-shows). When I fly through CVG or MEM, my upgradge percentage is over 60%. The key is finding routes through those markets where I can fly on aircraft with first class cabins. I don't have enough west coast experience, but I group my connection points into 3 categories: CVG/MEM preferred... MSP/DTW good ....... ATL/JFK avoid if possible ..... and this grouping is solely based on my precieved likelyhood of an upgrade as a Silver.
As I note in the original post, these numbers don't factor in elite population. Granted, as a Diamond I rarely have problems via Atlanta (except on hub-to-hubs) but do notice that when I have connections via CVG or MEM, V inventory tends to stick around until the GM/FO windows. I fully agree with your assessment though that if you are a Silver, your best bet is to consider CVG or MEM if those are options for you. Also, with the new quasi-hub at RDU, if you can fly via there, that is a good option if you avoid the RDU-ATL flight (DTW, MSP, BOS, LGA, LAX all have F seats from RDU, and I have been told by people in-the-know that it's not uncommon for FOs to get the upgrade on all of those flights).
Space from a hub is usually a lot more limited with all the non-revs flying. But it's still available. Granted, I'm thinking of my time 10 years ago flying non-rev Worldspan ATL-SLC. I was not usually upgradeable but I was flying peak times. My wife, however, enjoyed F most of the time.
Mersk--fascinating data in the OP. Where did you find the total flight numbers/mainline vs. express, or how did you compile it? (On a side note, good to see a familiar name from the WFU boards!)
