United Airlines Q2-2014 Earnings Call

Discussion in 'United Airlines | MileagePlus' started by davef139, Jul 23, 2014.  |  Print Topic

  1. davef139

    davef139 Gold Member

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    Ok so I am going to be back at it again. I should have time to hash out details, I may miss the first part, but call doesn't start until 10.30EDT

    Now I am expecting a profit in the range of like 770-780million unadjusted for the big expense. RASM was up good, and CASM seems to be fairly steady QoQ if this goes on the low end of the guidance that will make up quite a bit, fuel consumption looks down slightly, while price rose. Cargo looks down while other rev looks up to fill the gap that lags. Fully expect LATAM yields to drop, while RPM and ASM jump thanks to World Cup.

    While I didn't listen to DAL call yet, i expect there to also be a small focus on Venezuela and the fact UA is unable to re-patriot cash, I thought a 100 million was held up. While Delta made 801mil (adjusted) this quarter I think UA will still fall on the short end of the big 3 airlines, as spec charges will be high for UA, Which is really a downer as I think Delta will have more spec expense to record then United will.

    noticed analyst estimates are 2.14c/sh, or putting it at 800million, good thing i double checked as i had an initial lower value but i noticed where i missed the likely profit difference.

    For disclosure: I hold 1x UAL AUG 44Call option, 5x DAL JUL4 39Call option, 5x AAL JUL4 42Call.
     
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2014
  2. davef139

    davef139 Gold Member

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    Good lord my estimates were way off.. Need to check out where I went wrong at.

    http://ir.united.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=83680&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1950817&highlight=

    $919million (2.34c/sh) incl spec items $789million

    Still came in as the weakst of the big 3. AAL was 1.5billion, adjusted down to $864million. Sceams cuts aren't working hard enough.

    Not a whole lot of highlights.
    76.4% ontime mainline rate blames on SFO/EWR runways closings.

    Took delivery of 10x 739ER, 1x 788, and dumped 9x752's
    7x W175 into service with 38 by end of the year.

    240 have slimline seats now, don't worry they are 10-15% lighter so they are better :rolleyes:

    WIFI on more than 290 planes and by year end 450+
     
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2014
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  3. davef139

    davef139 Gold Member

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    Ok interestingly the Spec Items. 169million here.

    $66m due to grounding of 21x ERJ135
    $38m in severence and benefits
    $32m for disposal of 737 and 735
    $17m in integration-related, only highlight is "compensation costs related to systems integration and training and relocation for employees"
    $16m loss on sale of aircraft
     
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  4. Black Cloud
    Original Member

    Black Cloud Gold Member

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    And that's why US/AA got my revenue this week.
     
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  5. davef139

    davef139 Gold Member

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    Ok it looks as if i will miss the opening of the call as I will be on the road home, shouldn't be too bad as it generally covers the highlights only. Ok I missed a bunch.
     
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2014
  6. davef139

    davef139 Gold Member

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    Stupid accident or somthing on the road put me super behind! in Q&A now
     
  7. davef139

    davef139 Gold Member

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    Regional Q.
    Asking about how much control does UAL have over regional companies.

    Lame response, "new things to better cancel flights" wtf?

    Regional is declinig from 8% to 5% on 50seat RJ's (overall ops) WOO! :cool:
     
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  8. davef139

    davef139 Gold Member

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    Possible consolidation of operators at IAD (RJ)
    Will not discuss what RJ delay causes are publically, Question asked about what the irrops are weather/atc/time/crew/ect
     
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  9. davef139

    davef139 Gold Member

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    Gave no answer on how undervalued shares are, but feel repurchase is the right way to go, but they feel shares are undervalued.


    70seater CASM better then 50seater, but it puts pressure on the revenue, admits product is beter, and customers will rather fly a mainline aircraft on competiion then a 50seat RJ
     
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  10. davef139

    davef139 Gold Member

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    ROIC is a big factor when looking at new aircraft, some newer aircraft may not always be so effecient as some older 10year old 738 vs some Airbus.
    Potential used aircraft aquisition (narrow bodies)
    Trying to prolong life on current widebodies

    70v50seaters, UA sees lots of upsell opportunities with first and E+
     
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  11. davef139

    davef139 Gold Member

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    IAD Hub Q about shuting it down.

    Didn't give much color, but kind of hinted at there is a loyal base and strong GS/1K population at IAD along with high rev.

    Asked about other de-hubbing and what not, told nothing is off the table, Jeff gave a canned response of they are just working to improve for shareholders.

    Didn't know but they moved up the return cash to shareholders it was due by end of 2015. Business seems good.
     
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  12. davef139

    davef139 Gold Member

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    Connecting RASM is good. Making good money on connections

    Rebanking these hubs
    DEN-Starting this year
    IAH-later this year
    ORD-Spring 15
     
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  13. davef139

    davef139 Gold Member

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    LATAM Q

    Up about 4.5points on bookings, touts IAH as a gateway.
     
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  14. davef139

    davef139 Gold Member

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    TLV Flights: Safey for pax first, UA feels it is safe to fly. I kind of missed that as browser cut out, so i think they feel it is safe or wait till they think it is safe.


    And DONE
     
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  15. Rob
    Original Member

    Rob Gold Member

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    thanks again for posting what you could :)
     
  16. Garp74

    Garp74 Gold Member

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    Thanks davef139
     

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