UDUstats.com keeps track of upgrade success

Discussion in 'United Airlines | MileagePlus' started by Lufthansa Flyer, Nov 21, 2011.  |  Print Topic

  1. Lufthansa Flyer
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    Lufthansa Flyer Gold Member

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    A fellow MP'er had introduced me to UDUstats.com (Thanks Pat!). I posted more about it on my blog so please click here if interested about the database that keeps track of UA upgrade success
     
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  2. Wandering Aramean
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    Wandering Aramean Gold Member

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    Of minimal value given the dependence on self-reporting. Been around a while, but still not so useful IMO.
     
  3. Lufthansa Flyer
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    Lufthansa Flyer Gold Member

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    I know its the self reporting piece that is the weak part, but if we can get any lift it could only help. It came in handy when I was looking for routes to HKG, and some domestic stuff.
     
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  4. gobluetwo
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    gobluetwo Silver Member

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    The other gap (now, at least) is that it's only legacy UA. Would be interesting to have a combined UCH CPUstats site. Although I do agree with WA that it is of limited utility given the nature of self-reporting, I have seen some directional accuracy in terms of which routes tend to be easier or harder upgrades.
     
  5. genemk2

    genemk2 Gold Member

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    Might not be that useful now for purposes of determining upgrade availability, but I will contribute to the site so that they have more numbers.
     
  6. Lufthansa Flyer
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    Lufthansa Flyer Gold Member

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    the directional accuracy was the big benefit to me. I like your idea of having the Continental stuff come into play. I suspect it could do it easily since the database doesn't hold existing data like flight numbers or timetables. I think it just sorts the inputs from those adding data.
     
  7. Lufthansa Flyer
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    Lufthansa Flyer Gold Member

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    thanks for being an optimist! the more people that use it, the better the data.
     
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  8. Wandering Aramean
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    Wandering Aramean Gold Member

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    I do not see this actually coming to fruition. Even the "directional guidance" or whatever isn't necessarily so. As customers we simply do not have enough information at our disposal to get to the level of detail that makes this sort of tracking useful.

    Just like when people say that buying one or two fare buckets higher increased their odds of upgrades clearing, we simply don't have insight into the full data set to know if that is true or just feeling good about a decision based on an incredibly opaque data set.
     
  9. Tivoboy
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    Tivoboy Milepoint Guide

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    I've used this site since before the beginning and continue to find it useful. Even though I think the reporting numbers are down it still gives a good representation of "possibilities" for various elite levels and upgrade chances for my SFO to ORD and SFO to IAD legs the most. I'll pick flights according to day of week, time of day and historical odds and have my success rate go up.

    If only easy update worked, we could just figure out a way to forward the detes without having to upload the data.
     
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  10. hulagrrl210
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    hulagrrl210 Gold Member

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    It's still better than having no data! I think it's a good tool and a nice idea. Limited at the moment, yes, but there is potential. Why the hate?
     
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  11. Wandering Aramean
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    Wandering Aramean Gold Member

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    It isn't hate. It is just my objective and realistic view on the topic. Plus, I do not believe this bit:
    Bad or potentially misleading data is much worse than no data.
     
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  12. hulagrrl210
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    hulagrrl210 Gold Member

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    How is it bad data? Do you think people are making it up?
     
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  13. Phudnik
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    Phudnik Gold Member

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    It's self-reported data and thus unrepresentative, not projectable, and likely biased. (I should clarify that I don't mean "biased" as in people having an axe to grind, but rather slanted towards the experiences of a self-selected group of fliers.)

    It's akin to a "poll" you might see on CNN's website -- it only measures the experience of those who are motivated enough to add their experiences.
     
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  14. avflyer
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    avflyer Silver Member

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    I agree with Phudnik et al. A professional statistician would blow this methodology right out of the water. Definitely skewed.
     
  15. 2wheels

    2wheels Silver Member

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    Just as an example, I only report when I am happy to get the upgrade, or am pissed that I missed it. The weekly upgrades or non-upgrades LAX/SFO/SMF/DEN that I do don't get reported. I'm sure other people report only what they want to report as well.
     
  16. HaveMilesWillTravel
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    HaveMilesWillTravel Gold Member

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    And I usually forget to add data, and when mention of the site pops up and I just happened to have a flight that I actually remember and have a bit of time, I enter it. Then again, I also don't look for data there. My flight selections are usually driven by time/schedule, price and aircraft type, not by hypothetical upgrade chances (though aircraft type and time certainly have a significant influence on my upgrade chances independent of what udustats says).

    Now... if someone could convince UA/CO to actually publish that data based on their actual statistics when booking a flight (next to the on-time stats), that would be nice.
     
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  17. hulagrrl210
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    hulagrrl210 Gold Member

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    Yeah, but you know about these limitations. There is nothing "bad" about the raw data assuming people aren't lying or making it up, it is just incomplete. Seeing as how UA/CO doesn't publish the actual numbers, I'd rather have access to this than nothing at all.
     
  18. Wandering Aramean
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    Wandering Aramean Gold Member

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    And that's what is bad about it. Incomplete and arguably misrepresentative data is worse than no data at all.
     
  19. hulagrrl210
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    hulagrrl210 Gold Member

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    I disagree, but you know what, if you don't like the site, don't use it. Simple.
     
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  20. Wandering Aramean
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    Wandering Aramean Gold Member

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    Gee...thanks for that incredible insight. Sorry that my pointing out the limitations of it is so upsetting.
     
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  21. Ygor
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    Ygor Gold Member

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    I'm pretty sure he hasn't usen it given his reason not to trust the data, even before your thoughtful suggestion. :rolleyes:
     
  22. hulagrrl210
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    hulagrrl210 Gold Member

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    No problem ;)
     
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