The Pending AA Merger

Discussion in 'US Airways | Dividend Miles' started by Gulfstream 550, Dec 11, 2011.  |  Print Topic

  1. Gulfstream 550

    Gulfstream 550 Silver Member

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    I was itching to start this one:

    1. Will we see hourly non-stops from PHX, CLT, PHL - DFW?
    2. Will the complimentary upgrades be done away with?
    3. When will the announcement happen?
    4. What city will be de-hubbed? PHL? PHX? CLT?
     
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  2. Jimgotkp
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    Jimgotkp Gold Member

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    Isn't too early to have a thread about US and AA merging?
     
  3. DAS02135
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    DAS02135 Gold Member

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    In this scenario (or should we say foregone conclusion Gulfstream ;)?), of which alliance is this merged airline a part?
     
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  4. HaveMilesWillTravel
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    HaveMilesWillTravel Gold Member

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    They will join Skyteam :)
     
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  5. zshanlon

    zshanlon Silver Member

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    Id welcome that addition as long as theybkeepnthe grand slam.
     
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  6. zshanlon

    zshanlon Silver Member

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    1)IF this happened I'd wager to see PHL dropped. It adds nothing to an already crowded NE in terms of direct flight availability. I'd focus on CLT and increasing direct flights from there to DFW

    2)you can't expect to take away features of a mileage program and it go over well. I think AAdvantage adds automatic upgrades.

    3)never
     
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  7. Seacarl
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    Seacarl Gold Member

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    CLT is a fortress hub, and I think PHL works for US. PHX, I dunno

    I think the most threatened would be NYC, LAX, ORD and PHX. If US takes over AA, I expect them to quickly shrink it down by jettisoning non-profitable operations - NYC, LAX & ORD all fit in there- and it can be done cost-effectively within the BK
     
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  8. mowogo
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    mowogo Gold Member

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    I think NYC really depends on how much in OW connections it serves. If there is a lot of feed to other OW carriers, I could see NYC surviving. PHX is a dead hub, because I think US only wants one fight, and LAX is actually in a better position for high value traffic, while PHX is a war with WN (as well as LAX being better positioned for the Asia routes).
     
  9. Seacarl
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    Seacarl Gold Member

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    NYC is a terrible place for connecting traffic. AA isn't even in the same terminal at JFK as many of the other OW carriers, and a good portion of AA's flights are at LGA. AA's NYC flights are positioned to a greater extent for O&D traffic than they are for connecting traffic. They have to compete with UACO's EWR complex, DL who are bigger at JFK & LGA and on a path to grow further with the US slots, and with B6.

    NYC has emotional value to AA - they once had their HQ there, before leaving for DFW - but Doug Parker will make sober objective decisions. If he buys AA, he's only keeping the profitable, defensible pieces. Being #3 in NYC is unlikely to make that cut. How they rationalize PHX & LAX will be interesting to watch.
     
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  10. DeacFlyer1
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    DeacFlyer1 Silver Member

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    This should be fun :)

    1. If an AA-US merger did ever happen, it would almost certainly be US's management team in charge--and unlike AA's management, US management seems to understand that effectively controlling capacity is the key to being profitable. So while there may be a lot of flights from DFW to current US hubs, I'm not sure they would be hourly.

    2. No...haven't there been rumors that AA is in the process of moving to a UDU system?

    3. If this happens, I'm guessing the move would take place in the second half of 2012.

    4. I think PHX would be the most likely candidate to lose flights.
     
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  11. DeacFlyer1
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    DeacFlyer1 Silver Member

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    I don't see why you would de-hub PHL...AA doesn't have a very strong presence in the northeast, and US currently has a pretty good fortress hub operation going at PHL in terms of NE traffic...if there is a price advantage in that market, why get rid of it?

    I think CLT would definitely stay....AA has long wanted a south easern hub (see attempts at BNA and RDU), although the question would be how that operation meshes with MIA?

    I agree PHX would be threatened, but that's because US currently doesn't have much pricing leverage there with WN having a big presence. LAX, however, would not go anywhere...if anything, it would be built up, particularly if PHX shrinks.
     
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  12. MJonTravel
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    MJonTravel Silver Member

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    While I think it's a forgone conclusion that US would like to do a deal and is probably already cooking something up, I don't think they are guaranteed to be successful. But just for the sake of fun, I predict CLT stays, PHX goes, and PHL becomes a DCA sized "focus city." Hubs = DFW, CLT, MIA, JFK, LAX, ORD. There's my gaming prediction. Now let's see what actually happens. My guess, AA ultimately emerges from bankruptcy independently with BA owning the max allowable stake. That's not to say there can't be some sort of oneworld tie up with US in the future.
     
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  13. JetsettingEric
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    JetsettingEric Silver Member

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    I think there are a lot of synergies in the merger.

    PHL is a great fortress hub for US, and will be a great European hub for the combined AA/US. US already uses 757s on many European routes, and the larger carrier can expand to more secondary European airports with 757.

    JFK is slot constrained, especially around the afternoon/evening departure banks to Europe. I would expect to see beyond perimiter LGA routes continue to serve JFK and be the funnell for European traffic. However, destinations where you could fly to LGA would keep LGA service and have JFK service rerouted to PHL for international connections.

    Overall, i think regional carriers on both sides lose a lot.
     
  14. javacodeguy

    javacodeguy Gold Member

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    This title is extremely presumptuous. I half expected to see a news article stating that talks were underway. Instead there's a ton of speculation based on almost nothing. Perhaps the title could have been "Possible AA Merger Rumors."
     
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  15. DeacFlyer1
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    DeacFlyer1 Silver Member

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    I think it was somewhat tongue-in-cheek...I don't think anyone believes that an AA-US merger is imminent, or even something that will happen at all, but there has been so much rampant speculation out there, why not poke fun at it and pile on? At least that's how I took this thread!
     
  16. Gulfstream 550

    Gulfstream 550 Silver Member

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    Exactly - this is meant to be fun, and to see what everyone here is thinking and wanting in a meger.
     
  17. HeathrowGuy
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    HeathrowGuy Gold Member

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    AA and US merging would be like tying together two anchors and hoping they float.
     
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  18. Seacarl
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    Seacarl Gold Member

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    Maybe not quite. Maybe lashing together two overweight barges and then throwing a lot of deadweight overboard.

    If Doug Parker were to take over the combination, I don't think you'd recognize either airline when he's done - it won't be like DL/NW or UA/CO where they've kept most of the system intact. Think about what he's done to the combination of HP & US - LAS gone, PIT gone, LGA shrinking fast. I think he'd keep the AA name, maybe move the HQ to DFW, and keep the best, most profitable 2/3 of each carrier. I think you'd see shrinkage in JFK and probably PHX and maybe ORD, where UA & WN is too much competition to be profitable.
     
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