Personal Lending Results: Some Interesting Findings, to me anyway

Discussion in 'Kiva | Loans That Change Lives' started by jbcarioca, Mar 16, 2013.  |  Print Topic

  1. jbcarioca
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    jbcarioca Gold Member

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    Roughly 96% of the loans I have made on Kiva have now been closed, partly as a result of having been on Kiva for some years now. I have been doing some portfolio reviews and have noticed some interesting things, so I'll post them here. If you are interested I have many more.

    Of 1948 loans I made to the Philippines only 5 are delinquent, and only 3 have had losses. That is astounding! It is a huge tribute IMHO, to the excellence of the microfinance community there and the borrowers. Negros Women for Tomorrow account for 1500 of those loans and one loss.

    At the other extreme the US has a 27% delinquency rate, but there are too few loans and maturities to accurately count losses. Kenya has a 6% delinquency rate, not surprising but here is teh single most surprising one so far:

    Cambodia has only one single delinquent loan and no losses out of 169 loans made there. I have been very critical of Cambodian micro-lending practices, but largely supportive of Kiva there. I was astonished to find how good my own experience has been there.

    I have made a total of roughly 19,000 loans on Kiva, between my personal account and several others that I manage. During the coming months I'll keep completing more such statistics. As my portfolio has declined the overall delinquency rate has gone up reflecting the inevitable progression of a liquidating portfolio.
     
  2. volkswankin

    volkswankin Active Member

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    Those are great statistics and very helpful to those who are lending through Kiva. I'm surprised at how high the delinquency rate for the US is.

    Do you happen to have any information on default rates? Also, I think information on business type could be useful as well.
     
  3. jbcarioca
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    jbcarioca Gold Member

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    Thanks.

    The US delinquency rate is not really unusual, given Kiva reporting. US lender conventions show delinquent after one full payment past due for 30 days (i.e. second payment now due, first one still unpaid). Thus this is a bit more conservative. Also there is plentiful access to credit in the US for anybody with a remote chance of paying back. The people ending up in the US Kiva pool are thus pretty poor credit risks. Considering all that, these results do not seem surprising to me. OTOH, I have made no US Kiva loans otehr than on major loan campaigns when I loaned to every single borrower available on Kiva. I thus have only 27 US loans, so a very small sample.

    The default rate for the Philippines for me is too small to count in financial terms because my three losses there were small, so my loss rate in number of loans terms there is .01%, in $ terms it is .001%. Not meaningful, that it, negligible.
    I will be calculating other metrics in coming weeks and months. Business type will not be one, though, because there is no practical way for me to sort on that basis. I am limited by the information Kiva has readily available. With the volume of loans I have I cannot do it manually.
     
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  4. miles and smiles
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    miles and smiles Gold Member

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    I've also had no problems with Philippines loans. No defaults on 158 loans, and only a couple of delinquencies a year or two ago. I have only 3 US Kiva loans, but no delinquencies. Of course I have 4 U.S Kivazip loans with no delinquencies from them either.

    What I also find fascinating is that in recent months I have been making a significant % of my loans through field partners that are in Kiva's Experimental Partnership Program (http://www.kiva.org/updates/kiva/2012/09/13/introducing-kivas-experimental.html), which are are considered to be riskier, yet I am seeing no new defaults and no new delinquencies. My own conclusion is that Kiva is getting better and better at doing due diligence and choosing Field Partners (and Trustees over at KivaZip).
     
  5. YULtide

    YULtide Gold Member

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    Thanks for the update, jbcarioca. Very much appreciated.

    I am coming up to my 3000th loan (hope to make it on Thursday). To date I have 2244 loans successfully repaid, 15 refunded, 91 expired and 2 defaulted with a total loss of $32.54 (plus $0.38 in currency losses).
     
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  6. YULtide

    YULtide Gold Member

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    All my currency losses have occurred in Nepal (4 loans) and my 2 defaults in Ecuador.
     
  7. IDGflygirl
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    IDGflygirl Gold Member

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    I experienced currency losses on 2 loans in South Sudan, but 0 loan defaults.
     
  8. IDGflygirl
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    IDGflygirl Gold Member

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    Congrats on your upcoming 3000th loan milestone!:cool:
     
  9. jbcarioca
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    jbcarioca Gold Member

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    I have 135 loans that ended with a loss, of which 54 were South Sudan. All but one of these were FX losses of 10% or less, and the single loan principal loss was almost the full balance.
    During the coming months I'll probably have a few hundred more loans in loss because I have 387 loans delinquent, almost all for several months. The statistics I have need to be seen in context because the total portfolio rates have not been high. This is the impact of a liquidating portfolio. Reaching the last loans, very long ones or ones that have already had payment problems tend to concentrate.
     
  10. canucklehead
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    canucklehead Gold Member

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    JC, thank you for the analysis of your portfolios. Your contributions to the KLT forum have been missed!

    Just a quick glance at my stats shows no defaults in Eurasia/ME and only one in SA. I have approx 7.5% delinquent, but only 1% delinquent for more than 3 months.
     
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  11. kiwi
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    kiwi Gold Member

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    The following stats are out of date but indicative:

    Portfolio 2400 loans (at the time the stats were prepared).
    19 defaults - Liberia 9 (of 11 loans), Mexico 4 (of 95 loans), Philippines 3 (of 167 loans), Rwanda 2 (of 74 loans), Zimbabwe 1 (of 34 loans)
    5 ended with fx loss - South Sudan 5 (of 27 loans)
    11 loans which Kiva hasn't coded as default but which I consider to be due to length of time since last payment - 5 Zimbabwe, 3 DR Congo, 1 each 3 other countries.
     

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