How many 1k members are there currently in the MP Program?

Discussion in 'United Airlines | MileagePlus' started by beach1103, Nov 19, 2012.  |  Print Topic

  1. beach1103

    beach1103 Silver Member

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    This is a question more out of curiosity than necessity....

    While I understand that this information is probably not shared with the public...does anyone have any idea of how many 1k members there currently are in the Mileage Plus Program (and an estimate on the other elite levels)?

    I read somewhere that there are 44 million members and only 50k are 1k (18k are GS). I am just curious to get an idea of the elite breakdown. Based on my last 50+ flights (post merger) it seems like there are a minimum of 50 people in boarding group 1 (while there can be many reasons for people being in group 1...that is the only measurement I have).


    Thanks in advance....
     
  2. Mackieman
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    Mackieman Gold Member

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    I have no idea about the number of 1K elites, but remember that just because someone boards when Group 1 is called for does not mean they are in Group 1. It's up to the individual gate agent to enforce that, hence the wide variance in experiences around the operation.
     
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  3. beach1103

    beach1103 Silver Member

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    trust me...I totally get that. I have seen group 7 boarding with Group 1.:)
    I was just curious about the numbers of 1k's out there....
     
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  4. Wandering Aramean
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    Wandering Aramean Gold Member

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  5. guberif

    guberif Silver Member

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    I've heard 90 million.

    Also, remember travel partners (spouses? Escorts? Who knows :) might be boarding with companions in group 1.
     
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  6. JetsettingEric
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    JetsettingEric Silver Member

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    Also remember that the 1K and GS flyers fly the most, so you'll see them more often. If the median MP member does 1 roundtrip a year and the 1K does 60 roundtrips a year. Think about all the members that let miles expire, and u get a lot of zeros.

    You'd expect to see the 1k more often. Group 1 includes first class, so paid F, mileage F awards, miles upgrades and certs add to the list.

    Let's use your 50k number and 60 trips a year, so that's 3 millions trips. If the remaining 44 million take 1 trip, that's 44 million trips. So. the 1k trips are about 7% of the overall trips. On a 200 seater plane, that's 14 people.

    Add in 20 first class seats, and that's 34. Add in travel companions, people that don't belong, and you can easily get to 50.

    Some big assumptions all around, but not something that is unheard of.
     
  7. TravelerRob
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    TravelerRob Silver Member

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    2,847,920 1K's in the UA program.

    And 84% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

    -Rob
     
  8. Anglo Large Clawed Otter
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    Anglo Large Clawed Otter Gold Member

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    I know of at least three.
     
  9. zippypinhead

    zippypinhead Gold Member

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    :rolleyes:

     
  10. KenInEscazu

    KenInEscazu Gold Member

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    Seems to me that this info might be of interest in the company's annual report. Would it not be included there?
     
  11. Rob
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    Rob Gold Member

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    Per http://www.copaair.com/sites/us/en/noticias/Pages/nuevo-programa-de-viajero-frecuente.aspx 90 million members as of March 8, 2012.
     
  12. KenInEscazu

    KenInEscazu Gold Member

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    I didn't waste a lot of time looking at every link, but a quick Google search brought up an outdated Wikipedia page that stated, "In 2005, 46,000 members of MileagePlus qualified for 1K status." Not a lot of help today, but it surely tells us that the number is now "a lot more." Going to look up the annual report when/if I have time, as I am now curious, too.
     
  13. TravelerRob
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    TravelerRob Silver Member

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    No, I'm willing to bet it's not included in the annual report. This is a common thread over on FT on the Delta forum about how many Diamonds there are. At the start of the program a few years back it was reported to be ~32,000. That number has since grown. Considering 125K is "a lot harder" to reach than 100K for a lot of travelers and that UA has a much larger user base in its MileagePlus program I'd bet the # of 1K's is north of 100K now after the program combined.

    This is why I still argue for a 150K level at United. Few of us will make it but the perks would be there to match. The biggest one missing right now, IMHO, is lack of United Club access on domestic itineraries. I get SkyClub access as a DL DM.

    -Rob
     
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  14. Wandering Aramean
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    Wandering Aramean Gold Member

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    The number of total members may be.

    The number at each level is closely guarded, proprietary data.
     
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  15. beach1103

    beach1103 Silver Member

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    I am guessing that the number of 1K's is no more than 250k people....of which, I seem to see the same 10 people on every flight that I am on...:)
     
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  16. 8MiHi

    8MiHi Silver Member

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    It was reported anonymously in 2005 that UA's elite broke down this way:
    18K GS, 46K 1K, 239K Premier Exec, 535K Premier.
    Looked at another way 2.1% of Premier members were GS, 5.5% were 1K, 28.5% were Premier Exec and 63.8% were Premier.
    This information may have been scraped from documents in a lawsuit. I cannot vouch for their accuracy since I really do not know their provenance.
    Based on information given to me by CO in '87 (all elites summed together made up roughly 1% of CO's total flyers) and '97 (Gold= top 1%, Silver= next 2% and Bronze= next 4%), these numbers don't seem out of order for UA in 2005.
     
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  17. Michael D

    Michael D Silver Member

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    In 2005 UA had 80,199 million consolidated Revenue Passenger Miles (from 10K).
    Of which (using above numbers and nominal qualifying levels)
    4,600 million miles were flown by 1K
    11,950 million miles were flown by Prem Exec
    13,375 million miles were flown by Prem
    50,274 million miles were flown by non-status flyers.

    5.7% of miles purchased by 1K
    14.9% of miles purchased by Prem Exec
    16.7% of miles purchased by Prem
    62.7% of miles purchased by everybody else

    In 2011 UA had 207,531 million RPMs.
    If 1K membership scales with RPM then based on above numbers my guess is there are 119,000 1K (about 2.6 times).
    If this scale factor is applied to all 'Premiers' then given the 40 million members of MP it means less than 5% of the MP members are 'Premier'.
     
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  18. RichardInSF
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    RichardInSF Silver Member

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    In the past, Randy has claimed to know the numbers but, if so, he has never published it.
     
  19. Wandering Aramean
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    Wandering Aramean Gold Member

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    This assumes that people only fly to the threshold and then stop. But hitting the number exactly just doesn't happen. I don't know the average overage but there is some of that out there. It also doesn't take into account the CoS bonus levels.

    There are FAR more than 40mm members of the program. Like more than double that.
     
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  20. milchap
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    milchap Gold Member

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    :D And here I thought that MP stood for Milepoint......
     
  21. Michael D

    Michael D Silver Member

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    Yes. This is just a zeroth guestamate. The error in the numbers of people in each level wouldn't justify a more precise guess for the miles flown. If we do make a better guess on the average miles flown per tier:

    5,750 million miles were flown by 1K (125k miles)
    17,925 million miles were flown by Prem Exec (75k miles)
    20,063 million miles were flown by Prem (37.5k miles)
    36,461 million miles were flown by non-status flyers.

    7.2% of miles purchased by 1K
    22.4% of miles purchased by Prem Exec
    25.0% of miles purchased by Prem
    45.4% of miles purchased by everybody else

    But I wouldn't say 7.2% is a better number than 5.7%. They are both "about 6%"

    To include 4 tier status would just dilute/reduce the Prem Exec level I think.

    The CoS, or really present day UA levels, would dilute the Prem Exec category,
    Yes. To claim a 40 million membership of a program with only 5% active membership is pitiful. 80 million and 2% more so. The underlying point is 98% (or 95%) of the people who have taken the effort to join Mileage Plus don't come back and fly United. Really a low repeat customer rate especially when you consider that not everyone who flies will join. Even if the average flyer were to take only one trip every five years, it still is bad.

    When you consider that a lot of Silver and Gold tier members are opportunistic, the number of people who are flying United as their first/primary choice is small according to these numbers.
     
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  22. 8MiHi

    8MiHi Silver Member

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    The 40MM was definitely an older PMUA statistic. Rob's link to COPA has a number of 90MM for MP so I am willing to accept that number. If Michael D's numbers on miles purchased are correct, then UA had no choice but to dilute the perks of Silver & Gold and to put in a Platinum level to further reduce Gold level CPUs.
    I would be surprised, however, if less than half of miles purchased were by non-status members, although I have been on flights where half of the pax are in by BG1 (ORD-EWR).
     
  23. Michael D

    Michael D Silver Member

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    From this presentation slide by Jeffery that kind of supports the guestamations.
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/90427951@N06/8214079790/
    2011.JPM Airline.UAL Presentation p 6 .jpg
    If you plug in these ratios and assume an average of 14 cpm you get the average kettle spends 9.5 cpm and the average business flyer spends 19 cpm. If you back out the GS (assume all GS are an elite of some sort as was assume in the first set of guestamates) with an assumed spend rate of 4 times the average business flyer (in terms of cpm) you can guess the GS spends 72 cpm and the rest of the elites spend 18 cpm. (3X for gs yields GS 55 cpm other elites 18.5 cpm)
     
  24. Wandering Aramean
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    Wandering Aramean Gold Member

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    Where are you coming up with the idea that GS members spend 4x more than other elites?? :confused:
     
  25. Steve GadFly
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    Steve GadFly Gold Member

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    I know a GS who spends as little as possible! :D
     

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