Global [ plane ] accident rate at all time low, says IATA

Discussion in 'General Discussion | Travel' started by uggboy, Mar 6, 2012.  |  Print Topic

  1. uggboy
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    uggboy Gold Member

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    Global accident rate at all time low, says IATA:)

    SOURCE: http://www.businesstraveller.com/news/global-accident-rate-at-all-time-low-a-iata
     
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  2. MSPeconomist
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    Is the decrease from 2010 to 2011 statistically significant?
     
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  3. uggboy
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    A decrease even in such a short time frame is significant, year on year! It's good news, that's what the world needs!
     
  4. DTWBOB

    DTWBOB Silver Member

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    You can't quite answer that from the data that was presented.

    Most statisticians will tell you that for things that are counted, the uncertainty is the square root of the number of things that were counted --- for example, to have one to 1 percent accuracy, you need to count 10,000 things.

    The problem is they only gave the number of flights for one of the two years so a big piece of the puzzle is missing

    A more meaningful statistic to compare is passenger deaths (or injuries) per total number of flights, but you can't make that comparison from what's in the article.

    BTW, I've also felt the most dangerous part of a trip by plane was the drive to the airport, particularly these days when people think they can do things like text or use cell phones and drive.

    DTWBOB
     
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  5. MSPeconomist
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    I think the meaningful numbers would be passenger deaths and serious injuries compared to the total number of segments flown by passengers. One suspects that in most years, the overwhelming majority of airplane accidents involve small aircraft and hence few passengers on the affected planes.

    On the statistical side, we're really trying to estimate accident rates, where accidents are rare, and obtain for instance confidence intervals around the estimates. Even if we don't know the total number of flights in both years, the number of accidents and fatal accidents (not fatalities, so many deaths on one plane count the same as one death in an accident here) are so close together that it's hard to believe that we can state that the accident rates declined.
     

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