Future of *A in south america with departure of TAM

Discussion in 'Star Alliance' started by ralfkrippner, Mar 10, 2013.  |  Print Topic

  1. ralfkrippner
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    ralfkrippner Silver Member

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    What are your thoughts of the future of *A in south america with the departure of TAM to ow?

    I hope for some new direct longhaul flights and I really hope for new european flights to Panama City with COPA offering onward flights. A FRA-PTY flight 5 times a week should be a possibility IMO.
     
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  2. Fredrik
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    Fredrik Silver Member

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    TACA/Avianca is a part answer but it appears that the departure of TAM was quite a blow to *A. I am not an expert so there may be an airline waiting to join somewhere.
     
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  3. kyunbit
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    kyunbit Silver Member

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    *A is still stronger than Skyteam I think.
     
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  4. General_Flyer
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    General_Flyer Gold Member

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    Technically Star Alliance is the strongest, but it is now about the equal to OW as it looks like, when it will take 2 current members, + add another 2 like MH and QR.. Sad days...
     
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  5. garyst16
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    garyst16 Silver Member

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    AA has been pushing the build up of their South American routes for a while... Now with TAM in the OW picture, that area is pretty much locked up.
     
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  6. Wandering Aramean
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    Wandering Aramean Gold Member

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    Disagree heartily. In the Americas OW is very strong. TATL and TPAC are still very much in *A's favor.
     
  7. jbcarioca
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    jbcarioca Gold Member

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    The Brazilian government is reportedly trying to get Avianca and TAP together. TAP has little to offer other than Brazilian routes and European access, but Avianca may end out with some sweetheart expansion deals. OTOH, Avianca will not be a major force in the region nor will it have enough capacity to deliver any major benefit to *A unless somebody does does make some seriously generous deals for them.

    Without excessive speculation it seems likely that GOL will soon stop negotiating and join ST. GOL has been adept in avoiding commitment, but seriously needs international feeds and flights itself, although they have zero widebody fleet. They now have an all 737 fleet and lots more (148) on order. Their single MIA flight is in a 738 and must stop in SDQ. Thus they are ideal for DL, AF and KL all of which have lots of Brazil capacity and would like for GOL to join them. Can GOL become profitable this way? Big issue.

    Assuming that does happen Avianca is quite likely to be in a decent position for some extra support in shoring up *A. We ought not to forget that LH has increased it's own Brazil ASM by 50% or so during that leave couple years, and Swiss has done so also. The loss of TAM is a big blow for them, but no surprise because they knew it would end this way the day LATAM was approved. So they'll be anxious to shore themselves up, especially for Brazil, 40% of LA and more than that for LH.


    The story is far from over. I'll make book that the three alliances will be fairly evenly matched in South America (Mercosur, that is) within the next two to three years. How *A will recoup will be an exciting story, bringing us back to the 1930's in terms of political intrigue.
     
  8. Wandering Aramean
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    Wandering Aramean Gold Member

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    To my previous point, here are the TATL coverage maps across the North Atlantic for *A and OW:
    [​IMG]
    vs
    [​IMG]

    OW is broader coverage in the Americas but much narrower in Europe and ~40% fewer routes overall.
     
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  9. Flying Machine

    Flying Machine Silver Member

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    Hmm, With Brazil being a Hot Spot for Travel ( Olympics and World Cup ) I assume that *Alliance will find a partner. I just dont know who.. From may flights in the region, I did like TAM.. There really is not another contender that has the same range of coverage of TAM. Am I missing something??
     
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  10. Bay Pisco Shark
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    Bay Pisco Shark Gold Member

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    When you consider that most intra-South America travel would have to be on AR (for Skyteam), that isn't a hard feat!
     
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  11. jbcarioca
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    jbcarioca Gold Member

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    Don't forget GOL, although they have yet to actuyally sign up for ST, they're sleeping with DL now.
     
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  12. jbcarioca
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    jbcarioca Gold Member

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    Nope! LAN and TAM together are the behemoths, but GOL in domestic Brazil is the equal of TAM, and slightly ahead from time to time. GOL just has almost zero international coverage.
     
  13. HouseofV

    HouseofV Silver Member

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    LATAM (+ all other LAN) should definitely lead the pack. However, I think between Avianca(Taca) and Copa access to anywhere in South America will be relatively easy. Intra-Mercosur flights? That's a whole different story. As LATAM and their hubs should surpass any competition from (Avianca)Taca's operations from Lima.

    How's Avianca-Brasil doing? How's their reach? Future *A?
     
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  14. jbcarioca
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    jbcarioca Gold Member

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    I earlier was alluding to them. They have a small network and a small fleet. They are now not much of a factor. Azul even beats them. However, that could change. As I previously mentioned I am confident that someone will fund serious competition for OW and ST+Gol. Avianca Brasil si the former Oceanair. They only have 33 aircraft with another ten on order. They're A320 except for 10 Fokker 100's.

    That TAP deal I mentioned earlier just had a new press report saying Efromavich is preparing a new TAP bid, this time with Avianca as the buyer.
    http://www.ch-aviation.ch/portal/news/17398-avianca-preparing-second-bid-to-acquire-tap-portugal
     
  15. Wandering Aramean
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    Wandering Aramean Gold Member

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    I wouldn't be too surprised to see a play made for the Azul/TRIP combo, though Neeleman isn't particularly keen on alliances.
     
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  16. jbcarioca
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    jbcarioca Gold Member

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    His most recent conversations suggest he's still thinking. The Trip deal hasn't digested, but he's well aware he needs some serious mass. He also has some very good PR. After all, he's respected, and partly because he chose to IME back to Brazil, and fly EMB. I am positive there are deals still waiting to happen. Who knows if he'll end out being part of it. In the end he's a better visionary than executive, and he knows it.

    Sent from my iPad using milepoint
     
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