[FlyerTalk] JAL releases data on effect of the Tohoku Pacific Earthquake

Discussion in 'JAL | Mileage Bank' started by JALPak, Mar 28, 2011.  |  Print Topic

  1. JALPak
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  2. JALPak
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    More data released according to Nikkei: http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20110420D20JF637.htm

     
  3. JALPak
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  4. JALPak
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  5. canucklehead
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    Those are huge declines in passenger numbers. I was surprised to see domestic numbers drop so dramatically >25%. Does JAL have a larger domestic traffic than ANA?

    Lets hope Japan's recovery is faster than predicted!
     
  6. JALPak
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    ANA has higher market share for domestic market. I am surprised NH only see so little drop. Can our in house economist chime in please? :p
     
  7. Simon
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    Well ANA has more loyal passengers than JAL, that will fly no matter what the conditions! Simple as that lol.
     
  8. JALPak
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    Yea loyal passengers like those who earned their status without flying NH at all :rolleyes: Sounds like someone we know? :p
     
  9. JALPak
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    Golden Week Forecast Data is out! Big drop in international load factor and relatively smaller decrease in domestic traffic. But at peak period, JAL still expect int'l flights to be 95% full.



    2011: http://press.jal.co.jp/en/release/201104/001786.html

    Screen shot 2011-04-22 at 1.35.01 AM.png
    For comparison, below is the 2010 Data: http://press.jal.co.jp/en/release/201004/001524.html

    Screen shot 2011-04-22 at 1.36.20 AM.png
     
  10. QSG
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    JALPak where do you see a 95% LF?
     
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  11. JALPak
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    In their Japanese press release, there's break down of days...4/28 ex-Japan 95%, 4/29 98.9% ex-Japan...you see some not so pretty numbers too...May 7, 36.9% :eek:

    http://press.jal.co.jp/ja/uploads/JGN11007_1.pdf
    Screen shot 2011-04-22 at 4.52.13 PM.png
     
  12. JALPak
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    Mainichi has a comparison between JAL and NH...

    JAL vs ANA
    Domestic: -26% vs -10%
    International: -33% vs +9%

    How did that happen!? :confused:

    http://mdn.mainichi.jp/travel/news/20110423p2g00m0dm021000c.html


     
  13. Simon
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    Don't know but you can bet your bottom dollar there's going to be some great promos coming from JAL!
     
  14. JALPak
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    Promos that you can't take part of? :rolleyes:

    Give me 2x miles and 2x elite bonuses :p I don't want cheap 10K miles upgrade to come back though :p

    But they are really suffering. Still puzzle me why NH isn't affected as much...you think it's because of size of *A vs OW?
     
  15. Simon
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    Well I imagine all promos will carry on to at least end of March giving me some time to take advantage of them. Who knows... might even go through another year after that the way things are looking.

    The one thing we do know, they have expanded their codeshare quite a bit lately. Maybe everyone is flying on their partners but not them.....
     
  16. JALPak
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    unlikely the case regarding codeshare

    Let's see what kind of promotions they can come up with this time...Until the nuclear plant get under control, seems like promotions will have very little effect...well unless they are giving away free tickets like CX did during SARS. People just avoid going to Japan and pick other destinations now...so I still don't get how ANA only gets 10% drop in international traffic after the earthquake :eek: Maybe it's offset by their expansion to CGK, MNL and all the HND routes? While JAL moved over the NRT flights to HND and have capacity cuts? That's one explanation I could come up with...
     
  17. Simon
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    It does show that ANA has better yield management than JAL.
     
  18. JALPak
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    huh!? If it's y.o.y pax drop, it doesn't show they have better yield management although I wouldn't deny that based on other data.

    Think about it this way, if your resort increases its number of rooms by 100% y.o.y. and your total number of guests drops 10% y.o.y., would you say you are doing a good job at yield management? You can't just reach that conclusion based on number of guests. You need to take into account of revenue per room, capacity, etc. Just like you need to look at other data such as RPK, load factor, etc
     
  19. QSG
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  20. JALPak
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    Makes me wonder what their non-golden week numbers are like...36.9% is really low :eek: I guess we need to wait till June for them to release the April data :eek:
     
  21. QSG
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    My NH flight to HND from LAX the other morning was 80% (not that it means much)! I really love that new terminal with the gates/immigration/carousels/customs all on the same floor. And very easy to take those gigantic elevators down to the Keikyu train platforms....I was in Shinagawa about 45 minutes after I landed !
     
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  22. QSG
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    Golden week was always such a rip-off for travel.....I always just hang out at home anyway as the May weather is usually perfect. Will see how it goes in Tokyo this time around ! Hopefully JAL will rebound from these dismal numbers, but it will be a tough slog for them to get back on an even footing!
     
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  23. JALPak
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    That's decent load :) I want to try out HND arrival too but I don't want to fly to SFO just to catch the flight. SFO-HND was suffering before the earthquake (I got the info from someone ;)) not sure how it's doing right now...Judging from JAL's suspensions, seems like the one that are affected most are the medium and short haul flights within Asia.
     
  24. QSG
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    I wonder why they don't push the government to allow them to further expand at Haneda ! It is a much more pleasant experience.
     
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  25. JALPak
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    We should be able to get more clear data in their next monthly briefing. But they still maintain the whole year op profit target which was set before the quake. If load factors are that low, makes me wonder if they are nuts or what lol
     

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