Emirates Plans To More Than Double U.S. Destinations

Discussion in 'Emirates | Skywards' started by sobore, Aug 30, 2013.  |  Print Topic

  1. sobore
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    sobore Gold Member

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    http://gulfbusiness.com/2013/08/emirates-plans-to-more-than-double-u-s-destinations/

    Emirates Airline plans to more than double its network of U.S. destinations in the next three to five years to a total of 15 U.S. cities, up from seven currently, a company official said.

    Emirates plans to add as many as three new U.S. city destinations in the next 12 months, Thierry Antinori, chief commercial officer, said in an interview with Reuters.

    The comments mark a further sign of the expansion aims of one of the fastest-growing Middle Eastern carriers.

    Emirates is set to add new service from New York’s John F. Kennedy airport to Milan in October. That route, known as a fifth-freedom route because it goes between two countries other than the carrier’s home base, is out of step with Emirates’ Dubai-centric, single-hub strategy, but is not a sign that more such routes will be added in the future, Antinori said.

    The freedoms of the air are a set of commercial aviation rights. The fifth freedom allows an airline to carry traffic between foreign countries as part of services connecting with the airline’s own country.


    Read More: http://gulfbusiness.com/2013/08/emirates-plans-to-more-than-double-u-s-destinations/
     
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  2. TheBOSman

    TheBOSman Silver Member

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    More than double? What could they add? ORD, MIA, BOS all make sense on some level but I struggle beyond those. PHL, ATL, DTW, MCO, EWR maybe?
     
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  3. DAS02135
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    DAS02135 Gold Member

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    I hope BOS is one
     
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  4. jbcarioca
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    jbcarioca Gold Member

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    That is a trifle disingenuous in fact. EK has several routes that use fifth-fredom rights. One of them GIG-EZE, is one I regularly use. I do not know how many there are now in service, but it is not a departure for EK, just is only used when they have either insufficient loads for point-DXB or have lack of equipment for two flights. It's true enough that they do have a single hub, but those fifth freedom flights do exist and more of them will if EK can get the rights. Getting new fifth freedom rights is not too easy.

    In ancient days PanAm had many fifth freedom rights and quite a few beyond that. At one time there were ninth freedom rights for PanAm, British Airways, Air France and TWA for internal German flights (IGS). Those rights existed due to being granted at the dawn of international commercial aviation and for the IGS as a type of war booty.

    EK is actively seeking new rights, but the fact that they are now the largest international airline is hampering their access to a number of countries and to additional rights. The planned growth for EK will certainly exacerbate the political issues.

    This filing just made by UA trying to stop a EK codeshare for freight is one example:
    http://www.airlineinfo.com/ost15/ost082613.html#national82613
    The German access struggle with LH fighting hard against LH access is another example.

    From our perspective this is all pretty good. We would not see the constant upgrading of LH F and C services with almost all major carriers were not EK there representing a challenge to premium passengers. I expect several airlines will soon add the free car services to/from airports for LH Premium passengers since that is another big draw for EK.
     
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  5. kiwi
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    kiwi Gold Member

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    Yes. All 4 EK routes to NZ include 5th freedom rights.
     
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  6. kiwi
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    kiwi Gold Member

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    Yes. QF added airport transfer service for F & C pax on certain longhaul flights (those over 12 hours) following commencement of their alliance with EK on the kangaroo route.
     
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  7. meFIRST

    meFIRST Silver Member

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    I just hope this doesn't kill UA's and DL's DXB service.

    I could see ORD,BOS,MIA,EWR,ATL (that's 5)

    ATL would be really bad news for DL

    Maybe even over pacific BKK->US, which EK has the rights for, I believe, and Tim Clark keeps talking about
     
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  8. skyvan

    skyvan Gold Member

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    ORD is going to happen, and eventually HNL will, most likely from their BKK mini hub. The question is where else. I think DEN may get a look but there are serious gate issues going on there, but maybe EK could work a way to share a gate with LH or grab a triple of F9 gates (need multiples because they are narrowbody gates) or potentially find another solution...there aren't many widebody gates at DIA.

    Aside from that they may conduct actions to show they are not to be bullied by jumping in to PHL at dirt cheap prices, and I think we may ultimately even see thin service to CLT or other heavily corporate destinations.
     
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  9. Pizzaman
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    Pizzaman Co-founder

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    Gate issues at DEN? Is UA squatting on all the extra gates in B, because they definitely don't use all of them now. Also, if something happens with Frontier there may be space in A.
     
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  10. FriendlySkies
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    FriendlySkies Gold Member

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    I could definitely see DEN happening, though maybe as a seasonal service? I'm just not sure how much demand there really is for a n/s, when most pax would probably just do DEN-ATL-DXB, DEN-IAD-DXB, DEN-FRA-DXB, or DEN-LHR-DXB on DL, UA, LH, or BA.

    DEN has four widebody gates for direct access to the FIS. Although they do get used daily, the limited intl flights into DEN that require FIS access/clearance are spaced out enough that it shouldn't be a problem.
     
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  11. jbcarioca
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    jbcarioca Gold Member

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    The vast majority of EK business is transit anyway using DXB as a hub, and they thus can give DEN easy one stop service to almost anywhere in Asia or Europe. Couple that with generous Dubai stopover deals and they do very well. IIRC, roughly 85% of EK business is transit. I should have looked up the exact figure but did not. That explains how they manage lots of nonstops that seem improbable. I'm sure DEN would work out well for them.
     
  12. skyvan

    skyvan Gold Member

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    Thing is it's not about DEN-DXB at all. it's DEN-DXB-???, just like IcelandAir is DEN-KEF-??? with minimal DEN-KEF
     
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  13. kiwi
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    kiwi Gold Member

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    Of course. There aren't over 100 EK destinations with viable O&D traffic for DXB. It is all about being a super-connector hub.

    Same with, for example TK and IST.
     
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  14. eponymous_coward
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    eponymous_coward Gold Member

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    Wow, people will really do (USA destination)-DXB-LHR/CDG/Europe, where you're guaranteeing yourself 24+ hours of flying on top of the transit, because you're adding 7000+ miles of flying? I don't balk at flying Y TATL, but that's just painful unless you're getting a huge discount compared to a carrier that will actually hub in the USA or Europe. And for premium business, unless it's one of us crazy mileage runners/premium cabin junkies who will take silly routings in order to get access to a shower, that routing's not particularly attractive, either, no matter how much caviar you get. I'm not sure I buy this.

    IMO what EK is aiming for is USA-DXB-India traffic (which is only going to explode, given demographics, and actually DOES make sense when you look at a map), but for a lot of EK's destinations, DXB is a massive time-sucking detour that's nowhere close to being on the way...
     
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  15. kiwi
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    kiwi Gold Member

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    You're looking at their network in a US-centric manner. Africa or West/South Asia to North America via middle east is quite a sensible routing.
     
  16. Wandering Aramean
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    Wandering Aramean Gold Member

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    No. But there are a ton of other destinations where DXB is a natural connection point and saves a lot of time. There's a lot more to the world than just Australia and Europe.
     
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  17. eponymous_coward
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    eponymous_coward Gold Member

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    Allow me to quote myself, since apparently this paragraph got totally missed:

    I'm looking at where DXB is on a map, and of course my analysis is US-centric- these are US destinations we're discussing, no? DXB is a detour for a lot of EK's network when you're going (somewhere)-DXB-USA or vice versa. I will grant some of Africa and some of SE Asia, and obviously the Middle East (duh, I'm not an idiot), although even places like BKK or DKR are really more efficiently served from other airline hubs. I think EK is more looking at the USA-India market as the big near-term growth opportunity here, as I said, especially given that India's local airline industry is well behind Emirates in terms of being profitable, and India is rapidly gaining a large middle/upper class customer base of locals and expats based in North America that makes a great market for EK to target, to go along with corporate markets where India is gaining importance (tech/banking/legal offshoring, etc.), and India is the one best example of where using DXB as a scissors hub is an efficient routing.

    DXB is a scissors hub for Europe and a lot of places (including India). Not as much for the USA save for some other markets, a lot of which are emerging markets like Africa that are well behind India, so I think EK is never going to be connecting as many passengers as local US-based airlines do, but it works well for a USA-India market that they can consolidate a lot of other feed into. My point is mostly pointing out that USA-DXB-Europe is a nutty routing, and there's no way EK is actually targeting this traffic from the US. Makes about as much sense as USA-DXB-South America...
     
  18. Wandering Aramean
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    Wandering Aramean Gold Member

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    Don't forget that a single connect on EK may be faster than a double connect on OALs, even with additional flying distance. That's not going to make DEN-DXB-SYD shorter than DEN-LAX-SYD but MIA-DXB-BKK is only 300 miles longer than MIA-SFO-NRT-BKK. And depending on the connection timing in DXB almost certainly faster. Want to go to China? Parts of it are quite reasonable from the east coast via DXB: http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=bos-sfo-ctu bos-dxb-ctu&R=6600mi@bos&MS=wls&DU=mi. SYD is 3,000 miles longer via DXB than via SFO, but PER is roughly the same distance and now possible as one connection instead of two.

    You accounted only for India as a viable destination; my point (and I believe that of kiwi as well) is that there are many more places than that which could benefit from the DXB connection point.
     
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  19. eponymous_coward
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    eponymous_coward Gold Member

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    Fine, yes, let's all stipulate that there may be some US destinations that may work for some EK destinations (note that "a lot of EK destinations" is not "every single EK destination"). I still tend to think the big growth market for EK service from the USA is India, because it pretty much is the one place where USA-based carriers don't have much penetration in (meaning you are often using scissor hubs anyway, so, yes, fine, DXB is as good as any other), and AI/9W are not the most impressive competition (as opposed to, say, China, which DOES have a pretty decent domestic airline industry), plus the map works pretty much in your favor from the entire USA, but sure, let's stop quibbling over what "a lot" means. DXB is peachy keen for some USA connections. Point stipulated by the US-centric poster.

    Can we at least agree that DEN one-stop service to Europe through DXB is something that most people wouldn't remotely consider, especially when you're looking at 24+ hours of travel versus maybe 10, and EK would be barking mad to think this is a growth market for them?
     
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  20. skyvan

    skyvan Gold Member

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    Yes of course, I was replying however to FriendlySkies though attempting to explain this concept. It's the same reason that QF flies DFW-SYD...there is definitely not enough O/D for that route but connections make it work.
     
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  21. Wandering Aramean
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    Wandering Aramean Gold Member

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    Absolutely. And that's not limited to just DEN; it is for all CONUS/Canada points I'd say.
     
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  22. jbcarioca
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    jbcarioca Gold Member

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    I will not even stipulate that. I admit I am an EK frequent traveller. Any northern/eastern European destination that requires connections ends out being a candidate for EK, especially in premium cabins. If you try EK F you'll begin to see why many premium passengers will spend extra time to have a better overall experience plus privacy that approaches a private aircraft. Nobody else offers that to so many destinations as does EK. For travel to Moscow, Tehran and other points in Eastern Europe/middle east EK always works well. You may think there's not much business in these places. That is lucky for EK. They have become the largest international airline in large part by serving locations few airlines understand with premium services, complemented with a main cabin well suited to poorer people traveling to work and tourists.

    Without being rude, the western-centricity of most carriers left a huge void. Most Americans have zero clue how many people travel Denver-Tehran, for example. The political issues cause people who do so to be reticent about their travel. Just remember how many people travel from regional US cities to places in the Middle East and Eastern Europe only for the oil and gas industries, construction (especially specialized services). The amount of travel to such places is hard to calculate because many (most?) of the premium travel is by people who have more than one nationality. US citizens who travel in these regions rarely do so on US passports IME. So, frankly, US-centric people simply do not see the opportunities.

    EK will continue to do well with service to DEN, but they'll also choose other cities that might look improbable precisely to attract the same passengers. I will not guess which ones because I do not have access to the data on US industrial concentrations nor US naturalized citizen data by origin among other things. I do expect CLT to show up sometime in the next couple of years.

    Note: as a former resident four countries in the region and a very frequent traveler in the region I have first hand perspective on this issue.
    That does not make me correct, but it does make me think I am correct.
     
  23. Wandering Aramean
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    Wandering Aramean Gold Member

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    I think that the number of people who are buying F fares and who have the time to spend traveling an extra 10+ hours on a trip is a very, very small population.
     
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  24. jbcarioca
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    jbcarioca Gold Member

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    I'm not arguing for ten hours extra. I am arguing that there is serious understatement of their market. OTOH, there is also a quite large population, relative to EK premium availability, who make use of Dubai stopovers for a couple days in an ultra luxurious hotel while doing business in Dubai. Very often those stays are at EK expense due to the persistent special offers for Business and First Class passengers. Most recently I recall the Armani as the First Class deal. I was happy to have a little extra time to stay there and catch up with old friends. I am definitely not an outlier in this respect. I shall try to find the specific data about EK proportion of revenue from these segments.

    While I do not argue that there is a large number of these passengers, they do account for vastly disproportionate yield, as they do for almost all carriers. (even Virgin America says 1% of passengers provide 11% of revenue, and they've little premium product). For the most part the connections will equal or better the easy alternatives, especially when dealing outside the handful of US longhaul hub cities. I doubt that we've much disagreement about that.
     
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  25. eponymous_coward
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    eponymous_coward Gold Member

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    I actually think the emerging markets are going to be where the growth in the worldwide industry is, which is what EK is targeting. I called out India because it matches those characteristics the best in terms of positioning for DXB, but I could grant some others you mentioned.

    The problem's that doubling your flight time going through DXB isn't going to work, even if there's a shower and caviar on board. But a couple of hours extra, through a well-run hub like DXB, widebody and F (if you can afford it, but heck, even Y) all the way? Sure. That's one of the reasons why EK has been eating the lunch money for a lot of European/SE Asian airlines- EDI-DXB-SIN instead of EDI-FRA-SIN (plus EDI-DXB-SYD and so on). North American airlines have geography in its favor for a lot of their important markets, but not all of them, and that's what EK is targeting.
     
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