Are These 2 Rumored Aircraft From Boeing and Airbus a Real Possibility?

Discussion in 'General Discussion | Travel' started by gregm, Apr 13, 2014.  |  Print Topic

  1. gregm

    gregm Gold Member

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  2. blackjack-21

    blackjack-21 Gold Member

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    I really like the idea of a new B757MAX. Quick, somebody tell Boeing to read the article and restart production of the new MAX model before they've thrown the molds away.
     
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  3. eponymous_coward
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    eponymous_coward Gold Member

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    Not enough market now for a 757 replacement that the 737 and 737MAX can do about 80%+ of the 757s missions. Being able to sell maybe 200-300 planes that fly USA-Europe (or a few random routes like DEN/PHX-Hawaii, or hot/high like MEX) is a money-losing line for Boeing.

    I do like the fact that we now have a thread that comes up every 5 minutes on airliners.net here now. Quick, someone start a thread on AS being taken over! :D
     
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  4. gregm

    gregm Gold Member

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    A new 757-anything would make me smile. That has long been my favorite model.
     
  5. gregm

    gregm Gold Member

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    I agree, but I will still keep my hopes up for a new model 757.

    I'd rather see the 'news' posted by regular folks like us instead of the blog/news section where I have to first 'click' and be subjected to someones personal blog.

    PS:It was fool.com ;)
     
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  6. eponymous_coward
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    eponymous_coward Gold Member

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    Go look up how many "I wish there was a new 757" threads there are on a.net sometime. ;)
     
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  7. gregm

    gregm Gold Member

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    Will I laugh, cry or be disappointed?
     
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  8. timfrost

    timfrost Silver Member

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    First one, then the others.
     
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  9. gregm

    gregm Gold Member

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    :D:(:mad:?
     
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  10. LETTERBOY
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    LETTERBOY Gold Member

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    And before their unions go on strike. :D

    Probably true, but I wonder what will happen when the 757s the airlines currently use on those routes reach the end of their lives. Will they just drop the routes? If they do, will they bother to replace the 757s they use for those in their inventory? If they continue the routes, what will they use?
     
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  11. euromannn
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    euromannn Gold Member

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    Won't see a strike by unions until 2020...and Boeing knows this!
    Boeing broke the SPEEA union in 2 in 2012.
    Boeing broke the IAM Union in 2013.
    Boeing broke the non-union and managers in 2010.
     
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  12. gregm

    gregm Gold Member

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    I believe 73-somethings will take their place, at least on DL. Not my favorite aircraft for may reasons.
     
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  13. eponymous_coward
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    eponymous_coward Gold Member

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    Probably 737MAX for some routes, 787/A330NEO for the TATLs. Routes that are too long and thin get dropped.
     
  14. gregm

    gregm Gold Member

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    Doubtful for DL. They will buy whatever is leftover for real cheap!
     
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  15. eponymous_coward
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    eponymous_coward Gold Member

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    At some point 757s are going to have too many cycles (and too many expensive C/D checks) to be worth keeping around, even for DL (especially given how many 757s have been used on shorter domestic routes and thus have a lot more cycles). There isn't a 200-220 seat narrowbody capable of going TATL once the 757 disappears (except for the "let's fly a 737 from YYT" kind of TATL). The problem is that realistically you're talking about a couple hundred planes at most for that market. That's not enough to pay for the engineering work involved in making a new type.

    DL could probably work their current A330s/A763s into the ground, but at some point they will need to replace them AND their 757s...
     
  16. HaveMilesWillTravel
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    HaveMilesWillTravel Gold Member

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    Not a narrow body, but what about the 787? UA's 788 seats 219 pax. If they can grow those 757 markets a bit by the time the airplanes start becoming to expensive to maintain, could the 788 take over? Or are they too costly due to their target market being long(er) range routes? Don't Japanese carriers operate them domestically?
     
  17. eponymous_coward
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    eponymous_coward Gold Member

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    I think it might work out. It might have to unless UA wants to seriously shrink their markets. The problem is the 788 as configured by UA is a bit J-heavy.
     
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  18. Newscience

    Newscience Gold Member

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    But UA would enjoy operating a J-only airplane full of paying customers!
     
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  19. LETTERBOY
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    LETTERBOY Gold Member

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    Shouldn't be too hard to get them reconfigured (at least compared to the process of acquiring a new type of aircraft).
     
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  20. blackjack-21

    blackjack-21 Gold Member

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    If a new variant of the B757 with more fuel efficient engines giving it slightly longer legs were available, perhaps the airlines would be more prone to purchase it to replace their older more fuel hungry birds. UA uses many of their current -57's to fly short to medium domestic turns between the overseas flights, something that a B788 may be too much plane for as it also would be for the shorter and lighter TATL routes which the current model now covers well. A new model B757 with more range and efficiency may not be as prone to the frequent fuel stops needed for westbound TATL flights during the winter storms and could fit in well for the domestic turns that the current model makes, while at slower times of year fill in for more transcon or Caribbean nonstops if needed.

    Yeah, I know, I'm pissin' against the wind, but I think it's a better idea then using the B788 or A350 for the type of flights I've described above, as those new models weren't intended for shorter, lighter routings. And so far neither the B739 nor A321, both similar sized aircraft to the B757 have not been used by the airlines for TATL purposes.
     
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  21. jbcarioca
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    jbcarioca Gold Member

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    Based on aviation industry press I'd opine that the A330NEO is a near certainty. It is a fairly new design anyway and with a 280 plane backlog for the current model and new orders still coming plus clamour from existing A330 and B767 operators they'll want to do the simplest reengining possible, I'd argue there will be two versions, one shorter range for China domestic and other shorter markets, the other something like 7000nm or maybe more. Substantial rumours suggest they could launch with 150 orders or more essentially now. We'll see.

    Boeing has been pretty public that the longer-range B757 market is too small and limited to justify a major program. The B737 was a totally different story in that Bing urgently needed a comeback against the newer and more automated A320 with was mopping up orders for the A320NEO variants. The B737 adherents include lots of major airlines who really wanted to stay with a new one so Boing launched. If we all remember, when they launched MAX there were no firm specification for any of the variants. They did a stellar job of getting them defined, designing and selling it, but we all know they will be planning for a replacements in the next 15 years or so. 2025 has been discussed quite a lot. This February Aviation Week article explains some of the recent issues: http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/AW_02_24_2014_p28-665049.xml

    Given that Boeing planned the B787-3 to pick up that market but it did not sell they are moving to Plan C, I suspect. That will be the single aisle true B737/B757 replacements based on B787 technology.

    As they prepare for the B737 replacement they'll have a longer-range single aisle option if they get enough interest. If not they just might ignore that market and continue to work on a lighter version of the B787 that would do better than the B787-3 did. They have a huge order book so I see no big rush to replace a fairly limited specialised model.

    In the meantime airlines will probably do what they already are doing, using B737MAX8 and A321NEO as replacements for similar markets. It is interesting that the B737MAX9, the closest to the B757, has sold poorly except to LionAir, which made the only large order for the model. Since both the B737MAX-8 or 9 and A321NEO are smaller and slightly short range than is the B757-200 they aren't 100% replacements. However that tiny niche is moving to slightly large sizing so will be probably filled by keeping B757-200 longer and/or A330 short range versions. In the meantime Boing will fill that niche when they do the new B737 replacement built on B787 technology. They'll certainly launch that in the next 3-5 years, because everyone is well aware that the MAX is a stopgap, albeit a highly successful one.

    Once all that is done they'll be in good shape because the B777 new versions will be good for a couple of decades as they will be plug replacements for B747 and other B777, and B777 software is relatively easy to update, and it is the most modern design pre-B787 that Boeing has.

    I am certainly not an expert, although I do read all the industry press I can find. Still I'm pretty confident we'll see something like this happen.
     
  22. LETTERBOY
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    LETTERBOY Gold Member

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  23. eponymous_coward
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    eponymous_coward Gold Member

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    AS has ordered some 737MAX9s. I would expect they will add more as time goes by. It also wouldn't shock me to see airlines change their MAX orders to the MAX9 as they go along- easy way to bump capacity without ordering a new plane...
     
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  24. gregm

    gregm Gold Member

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  25. blackjack-21

    blackjack-21 Gold Member

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    Even if Boeing decides to come out with a differently named and numbered aircraft, they should really consider those few many of us who really enjoy being on that staunch, distinctive, takeoff-like-a-rocket aircraft by at least giving the slightly newer replacement model the same distinctive non-Boeing drooping snout and the longer, standing on stilts looking landing gear configuration to asuage the painful transition that awaits us with the inevitable final demise of that beauty to something with much less eye-appealingness and and too much confomity to other birds as to be completely non-distinctive in its entirety, and with an unnoticeably usual takeoff longer roll that could never be copied from the current model's seemingly JATO takeoff.

    However, if those of us who sincerely wanted to keep the original model flying perpetually and longer too, there should be a movement started by those of us who may be able to do so (yours truly not able to, sadly, too costly) to start an exclusive airline with only the original B757-200 models (-300's need not apply) in the fleet, after much determinationing those airframes with the least cycles on them, so as to recycle them for an additional minimum of at least 21 further years of wonderful flying, unequaled by any other aircraft in the skies. We could then call the newer exclusive, only 47 F class seats on the entire planes, airline, "MilePoint Airlines", where nothing but exclusiveness and quiet understated class will get you more points then you ever dreamed possible while flying the best mid-sized speedster in the Skies." Not sure though that all that could be painted along the full length of the fuselage, but the latter few words could continue to the very top of the empanage.
     
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