Airline profits/losses projected, company by company

Discussion in 'General Discussion | Miles/Points' started by kansaskeith, Dec 29, 2011.  |  Print Topic

  1. kansaskeith

    kansaskeith Gold Member

    Messages:
    2,486
    Likes Received:
    5,786
    Status Points:
    4,070
    Projected profits/losses for 2011, in MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

    Boy, talk about AA standing out like a sore thumb:

    AirlineProjected earnings
    Alaska Air Group $295
    AMR -$1,193 $1.193 BILLION dollar loss
    Delta $1,114
    JetBlue $83
    Southwest $325
    United Continental $1,443
    US Airways $64
    Allegiant $49
    Hawaiian $40
    Pinnacle -$7
    Republic -$3
    SkyWest -$9
    Spirit Airlines $94

    Total $2,296, as in $2,296,000,000 profit

    Source: Dallas Morning News http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/
     
  2. kyunbit
    Original Member

    kyunbit Silver Member

    Messages:
    893
    Likes Received:
    1,154
    Status Points:
    825
    AMR is the only one making a loss!
     
  3. kansaskeith

    kansaskeith Gold Member

    Messages:
    2,486
    Likes Received:
    5,786
    Status Points:
    4,070
    Well, Pinnacle, Republic and SkyWest have "minus" signs too. But the numbers pale in comparison.
     
    rwoman likes this.
  4. HaveMilesWillTravel
    Original Member

    HaveMilesWillTravel Gold Member

    Messages:
    12,503
    Likes Received:
    20,197
    Status Points:
    16,520
    Alaska's result is impressive.
     
    misterbwong and rwoman like this.
  5. NYCAdventurer

    NYCAdventurer Gold Member

    Messages:
    11,382
    Likes Received:
    5,329
    Status Points:
    10,070
    Hopefully AMRs reorganization will change things for them.
     
  6. pnoeric

    pnoeric Silver Member

    Messages:
    347
    Likes Received:
    565
    Status Points:
    595
    Good grief... I'm encouraged by seeing UA/CO's numbers, since they were also Chapter 11 a few years ago... if they could turn it around so quickly (and, seemingly, effectively), hopefully the same will happen with AA.
     
  7. garyst16
    Original Member

    garyst16 Silver Member

    Messages:
    963
    Likes Received:
    1,028
    Status Points:
    825
    Hence why AMR filed Chapter 11! Let's not forget all the other majors already reorganized and that is the ONLY reason they are profitable today...AMR tried to hold its head high and do the right thing by its creditors...unfortunately...that didn't work in their best interest...hopefully, they will be able to right the ship and continue providing the service we EXP's have come to expect and enjoy!
     
  8. misterbwong

    misterbwong Silver Member

    Messages:
    325
    Likes Received:
    478
    Status Points:
    520
    It will be interesting to see how well they come out of Chpt 11. As a side note, anyone else think US' share is disproportionately small?
     
  9. HaveMilesWillTravel
    Original Member

    HaveMilesWillTravel Gold Member

    Messages:
    12,503
    Likes Received:
    20,197
    Status Points:
    16,520
    Maybe a reflection of their limited international reach and unresolved merger efficiencies domestically?
     
  10. kyunbit
    Original Member

    kyunbit Silver Member

    Messages:
    893
    Likes Received:
    1,154
    Status Points:
    825
    They might need to file Ch 11 again some time in the future
     
  11. HaveMilesWillTravel
    Original Member

    HaveMilesWillTravel Gold Member

    Messages:
    12,503
    Likes Received:
    20,197
    Status Points:
    16,520
    The perpetual fate of all major airlines? ;)
     
  12. firstglobal

    firstglobal Silver Member

    Messages:
    94
    Likes Received:
    163
    Status Points:
    380
    Why would LCC need to file bankruptcy again? You can go on making a tiny loss forever and stay in business. Absent another major incident affecting the entire sector, they're not going anywhere.

    That said, this annual profit is less than you would expect given their size in comparison to Delta and United (they're about 30% the size of Delta or the new United in terms of seat-miles).
     
  13. HaveMilesWillTravel
    Original Member

    HaveMilesWillTravel Gold Member

    Messages:
    12,503
    Likes Received:
    20,197
    Status Points:
    16,520
    How exactly does that work? By definition, a loss means you didn't have enough money come in to cover your costs, so how do you make up the difference? Sure, you can borrow money a few times, you can mortgage your property, but that only works so long...
     
  14. firstglobal

    firstglobal Silver Member

    Messages:
    94
    Likes Received:
    163
    Status Points:
    380
    Err, I meant "tiny profit". What I was really trying to say was "You can go on making a small profit forever, or even a small loss for a long time." I tried to cut the statement short but the wrong words came out ;)
     
    HaveMilesWillTravel likes this.
  15. kansaskeith

    kansaskeith Gold Member

    Messages:
    2,486
    Likes Received:
    5,786
    Status Points:
    4,070
    Firstglobal, who posted that, may have a better answer.

    As for me, I would quarrel with the "forever" part but I would admit that you can keep going a lOOOng time with losses, as demonstrated in recent years by some AAirline we know so well. Loss AAfter loss AAfter loss. You can keep going for a long time because certain things that affect your net worth are asset value, long term pension liabilities based on your people's expected life expectancy, etc., but don't immediately affect cash. As long as you have cash to pay the immediate bills you can keep going even though when you put certain noncash liabilities on your balance sheet according to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, it shows you have a loss for the period at hand. The unions actually hoped that because AA still had a lot of cash in November, they wouldn't "rush" into bankruptcy even then.

    Eventually, however, as you indicate, Have Miles, the losses would close a company down.

    EDIT: I see FirstGlobal posted while I was typing this.
     
    HaveMilesWillTravel likes this.
  16. HaveMilesWillTravel
    Original Member

    HaveMilesWillTravel Gold Member

    Messages:
    12,503
    Likes Received:
    20,197
    Status Points:
    16,520
    LOL! Yes, now it makes complete sense. Though I was hoping for some business advice that would let me start a business, run it with a small loss each year (say, by paying myself a generous salary) and keep that going forever :)
     
    TravelerRob and MLW20 like this.
  17. firstglobal

    firstglobal Silver Member

    Messages:
    94
    Likes Received:
    163
    Status Points:
    380
    I'm pretty sure that I've worked for that business before ;)
     
    HaveMilesWillTravel likes this.
  18. MLW20
    Original Member

    MLW20 Gold Member

    Messages:
    8,363
    Likes Received:
    4,911
    Status Points:
    6,545
    I was surprised that JetBlue was behind Spirit in earnings.
     
  19. HaveMilesWillTravel
    Original Member

    HaveMilesWillTravel Gold Member

    Messages:
    12,503
    Likes Received:
    20,197
    Status Points:
    16,520
    Good point. It would be interesting to put these numbers into perspective by adding other figures like revenue ...
     
  20. julielou2
    Original Member

    julielou2 Silver Member

    Messages:
    119
    Likes Received:
    218
    Status Points:
    395
    No surprise that Alaska Airlines stock is at a 52 week high...
     
  21. alexkgtu

    alexkgtu Active Member

    Messages:
    34
    Likes Received:
    46
    Status Points:
    75
    while airline stocks are usually a bad investment, I believe AMR will do it right this time, hence I'm stocking up on AMR stocks for a long run.
    your thoughts?
     
  22. kansaskeith

    kansaskeith Gold Member

    Messages:
    2,486
    Likes Received:
    5,786
    Status Points:
    4,070
    I'm no certified financial adviser, but I have read that in most bankruptcies, the shareholders are basically wiped out. In addition, I have read that NYSE is "de-listing" AMR Corp. this week. The latter of the two isn't necessarily fatal, but my opinion is that your strategy may not be a good one. The reorganized company may end up doing well, the customers may do fine, but as for the current class of shareholders, watch out.
     
    HaveMilesWillTravel likes this.
  23. HaveMilesWillTravel
    Original Member

    HaveMilesWillTravel Gold Member

    Messages:
    12,503
    Likes Received:
    20,197
    Status Points:
    16,520
    Right. I think chances are pretty good that the stock price of the current AMR will go to zero, then new stock will be issued. Definitely I would not buy now as a mid or long term investment. Heck, even short-term. And no, this isn't investment advice. It's just what I would do (or not do).
     
    kansaskeith likes this.
  24. alexkgtu

    alexkgtu Active Member

    Messages:
    34
    Likes Received:
    46
    Status Points:
    75
    thanks.
    Its still a reorganization, not liquidation...
    spoke to a friend of mine who made millions on stock market, he said I shouldnt do it. guess you're right, guys.
     
  25. HaveMilesWillTravel
    Original Member

    HaveMilesWillTravel Gold Member

    Messages:
    12,503
    Likes Received:
    20,197
    Status Points:
    16,520
    That's correct. But the stock typically gets cancelled in a chapter 11 reorganization.

    Look at this:

    The company said that because of its Chapter 11 filing, it could not try to “cure” the weakness in its share price, and would not oppose the delisting.
    AMR expects that the shares will trade on the over-the-counter bulletin board and pink-sheets electronic trading as soon as next Thursday under a new ticker symbol, not the familiar “AMR.”
    AMR noted that in most Chapter 11 bankruptcy cases, stockholders get little or nothing for their shares.
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...ding-on-nyse/2011/12/29/gIQAxNbAPP_story.html

    If AMR is telling you, effectively, that it will be worthless, I'd listen to them :)
     

Share This Page