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Scoop: Delta breaks the revenue program barrier  

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WilliamQ
(@williamq)
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 4660
February 26, 2014 10:41 pm  

MSPeconomist, post: 2301146, member: 3132 wrote: $3000 per ticket X 8 miles per dollar for GM = 24,000 redeemable miles per trip, which is close to what you're earning now. Of course, it would help to have more precise numbers including taxes and fees on your tickets, but this is in the ballpark..

@MSPeconomist, this was the sample I worked out yesterday on the other thread. The difference for me is 50% as I cannot apply for DL CC based in asia.


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WilliamQ
(@williamq)
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 4660
February 26, 2014 10:47 pm  

Same Trip (LAX-SIN)
Further out so cost is lower. Difference is HUGE.


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MSPeconomist
(@mspeconomist)
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Posts: 58664
February 26, 2014 10:48 pm  

OK, I used three thousand dollars for the fare, which was your estimate, but 8 X is the factor for GM. I wasn't assuming any AmEx miles.

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MSPeconomist
(@mspeconomist)
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Posts: 58664
February 26, 2014 10:53 pm  

Randy Petersen, post: 2301152, member: 7 wrote: Over HERE they have a look at what they believe could be the new proposed award chart for an economy ticket to Europe adding in the up to two new additional tiers. Not sure what other proposed chart levels might look like but I think that the earlier changes by Delta might have been the precursor and may not find much more toward the heavens on mile requirements. Still far too early.

I'd be happier if we could see a tentative award chart for a TATL RT in BE. That and BE TPAC are what interest me, perhaps with Australia/NZ thrown in for variety.

DL DM (charter) 1.7+MM, A3 *A Gold, SPG Plat, Marriott Plat Premier, Hyatt Diamond (new from SMD3), LHW LC Access, Raffles Ambassador, ICI (Imperial Club International), Hertz #1 Gold, dirt with Hilton (former Gold), Omni, Loews, CO/UA, AA, etc., former NW PE ~1.3MM, TWA ~1.4MM


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WilliamQ
(@williamq)
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 4660
February 26, 2014 10:56 pm  

MSPeconomist, post: 2301161, member: 3132 wrote: OK, I used three thousand dollars for the fare, which was your estimate, but 8 X is the factor for GM. I wasn't assuming any AmEx miles.

Unfortunately even if I buy a USD 3000 ticket .... there is still over a 10k difference in miles awarded as a GM


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mattsteg
(@mattsteg)
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Posts: 3342
February 26, 2014 11:08 pm  

MSPeconomist wrote: Don't assume that the changes must be bad for you. Try to estimate your situation and compare your status and mileage earnings under the current and future regimes. You might be surprised (either way).

Based on 2013 mqds they are neutral. In 2013 I coasted on rollover and amex spend, and was driven by price to other airlines more than previous years. I did not do a paid longhaul/discretionary trip on dl last year and normally do.

For my business/domestic travel the effect isn't huge. For international and discretionary travel (ie tickets I purchase due to attractive pricing) the difference is dramatic, and unless partner earnings are strong really kills the value proposition there.

So basically on the flightsbi need to take there is little net change, but disincentive (unless the availability on the new swus is really good) to book any long haul coach.

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mht_flyer
(@mht_flyer)
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February 27, 2014 12:16 am  

I think this will be very bad for most long-haul or transcon flyers -- especially though who don't have to purchase walkup fares...

I guess for folks that have unlimited travel budgets they will make out well.

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Seacarl
(@seacarl)
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Posts: 10571
February 27, 2014 12:23 am  

Don't consider the AMEX miles in making the comparison - these are the same AMEX miles that you can earn today in the mileage-based program.

For any travel that costs less than 20-25 cents/mile (not counting taxes and fees), you will earn less miles under the new program. Coach fares on long haul flights are generally less than 10 cpm, so the earning rates may be cut in half on coach long haul flights. Short haul flights that fares are often higher, so the effect won't be as great.

WilliamQ, post: 2301156, member: 142169 wrote: @MSPeconomist, this was the sample I worked out yesterday on the other thread. The difference for me is 50% as I cannot apply for DL CC based in asia.

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Wandering Aramean
(@wandering-aramean)
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February 27, 2014 12:32 am  

Given that Delta is, at best, the 6th program to make such a move it is not entirely clear what "barrier" they broke here. Yes, they changed their program. But they're hardly the first to approach it this way.

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MyTravels
(@mytravels)
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February 27, 2014 12:57 am  

Randy Petersen, post: 2301148, member: 7 wrote: Interesting observation. I was talking to an analyst today and it was their theory that Delta had heard someone else was in the wings on this and wanted to go first which is why the unusual void in the middle of the announcement and the actual changes.

(emphasis mine).

12 years ago a Delta employee (now executive) and I discussed earning based on spend rather than distance as it was a long-term goal for the airline but they had not found a way to make it palatable. Given 12+ years of research & refinement I am surprised that even with a rush to publish that there is still such a huge gap in the announcement.

* I find that the harder I work, the more luck I seem to have. - Thomas Jefferson
* It's not tyranny we desire; it's a just, limited, federal government. - Alexander Hamilton


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Randy Petersen
(@randy-petersen)
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February 27, 2014 1:21 am  

MyTravels, post: 2301272, member: 6067 wrote: (emphasis mine).
12 years ago a Delta employee (now executive) and I discussed earning based on spend rather than distance as it was a long-term goal for the airline but they had not found a way to make it palatable. Given 12+ years of research & refinement I am surprised that even with a rush to publish that there is still such a huge gap in the announcement.

Gary (View From the Wing) just asked me that same question. Here's the best I can do with the same information you have:
Top Ten Reasons For Hiding The Award Chart.
[LIST=1]
[*]they heard rumors of others and wanted to be first out of the gate so they can develop the program for others to follow rather than they thinking they needed to respond. (TOTH: MSPeconomist @ Milepoint)
[*]they were burned from the social element of no/not so much notice on last few changes and read the View From the Wing blog that they are on the short list for not giving notice. So they over notice everyone.
[*]They are crowdsourcing the award chart. Given enough notice they will have enough time to measure feedback and then decide the award chart. Thought about doing the new award chart on Kickstarter but thought it might look tacky.
[*]they are still trying to figure out how much to charge for awards to/from Seattle (inside joke w/ Alaska Airlines)
[*]Read [my] lips. OK, then read others. Top airline analyst Henry Hartevelt points out that DL recently did announce changes for premium long haul awards, and the kimono doesn't look like its got much junk left in it.
[*]They used the same heating, air conditioning and refrigeration firm that Target was using and as a result the new award chart was breeched and hackers now have all the miles. No miles, no award chart—what's so difficult to understand about that?
[*]The Winklevoss twins have convinced Delta to accept Bitcoins as partial payment in the new Miles + Cash option and unfortunately with the value of a BitCoin down, they need to wait as that market recovers before they can introduce the program that the Winklevoss's sold them.
[*]Hoped to buy time so that they can return to the Texas market now that the Wright Amendment has been appealed and announce intrastate awards between Love Field and Ellington Field.
[*]Gary, don't you know your numerology? The number 5 is the most dynamic and energetic of all the single-digit numbers. It is unpredictable, always in motion and constantly in need of change—Five tier award chart .. .get it?
[*]And the number one reason why Delta is hiding the new award chart: Don't trust Doug Parker to come back and want to buy Delta again so left just enough room in the notice to scare off anyone, including Doug. Really would Doug want to buy an unknown award chart? Don't answer.
[/LIST]

Have a great day and for what it's worth ... behind this post is a guy that loves what he does for frequent flyers, so contact me anytime.


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jackplum
(@jackplum)
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1232
February 27, 2014 2:00 am  

A review of my flights last year and projected for this year show about 10% increase under the 2015 guidelines. That is as a PM and not counting AMEX.

A low cost TATL or Caribbean flight shows though about 10 to 15% less earnings but I primarily use my miles for TATL BE and Caribbean trips and when I purchase one of these for myself, I buy F to accompany my companions who are on award travel using my miles.

So for me, it doesn't upset me. I did notice that FO members seem to make out quite well especially in short domestic flights whereas GM members seem to be the loser.

As for the award chart, that remains to be seen. I am hesitantly thinking of a greater differential than the example Randy mentioned. Somewhere around 20000 per tier so per the example it would be 60k 80k 100k 120k and 140k, realizing a premium for the last minute seat.

I guess YMMV does apply!


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Seacarl
(@seacarl)
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 10571
February 27, 2014 3:28 am  

jackplum, post: 2301344, member: 9518 wrote: A review of my flights last year and projected for this year show about 10% increase under the 2015 guidelines. That is as a PM and not counting AMEX.

You shouldn't count Amex because you get those miles today on your dollars, plus you earn the mileage-based miles and bonuses. The Amex miles are not an increase. Also make sure that you are backing out all the taxes and fees which are over $40 on a connecting round trip plus the federal ticket tax. Basically if you are paying under 23-25 cpm you will likely earn less miles under the new program vs. the old. I suspect that 90% of travelers will earn less and only a small percentage will earn more. Perhaps many won't understand that. DL's calculator makes it likely you will do comparisons that include that taxes and fees.

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mattsteg
(@mattsteg)
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 3342
February 27, 2014 4:05 am  

Seacarl, post: 2301424, member: 957 wrote: You shouldn't count Amex because you get those miles today on your dollars, plus you earn the mileage-based miles and bonuses. The Amex miles are not an increase. Also make sure that you are backing out all the taxes and fees which are over $40 on a connecting round trip plus the federal ticket tax. Basically if you are paying under 23-25 cpm you will likely earn less miles under the new program vs. the old. I suspect that 90% of travelers will earn less and only a small percentage will earn more. Perhaps many won't understand that. DL's calculator makes it likely you will do comparisons that include that taxes and fees.

The better option than the calculator is to look at 2013 MQDs, if your travel patterns are expected to stay similar.

Although the calculator is a good picture for incremental/marginal/discretionary trips which is what this slaughters the most.

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Punki
(@punki)
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February 27, 2014 8:48 am  

I somehow acquired about 600,000 Delta miles (I don't know how since I never fly Delta) and have never been able to find a way to use them. Their redemption availability is almost never there and, when it is, the rates have always been ridiculous. I have been so unhappy with these miles that I have, in fact, been tempted to just book a really expensive (in terms of miles) flight just to get rid of the miles so I don't have to think about them any more.

Hopefully with their new "greater availability" we'll be able to find a way to use them. Do you think Delta would consider trading them for AS miles? 😉


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